Just as the Easter long weekend began in earnest, political campaigning in Australia came to an abrupt rest. Politicians took advantage of the opportunity to test drive new sound bites and snappy comebacks. At the same time, the Coalition prepared to roll out its greatest single policy promise. This election is proving to be one of the most competitive races, with major consequences for each party’s fate.
The Coalition would love to see the administration’s announcement of a major increase in defense spending. For their next fiscal year, they’ve already appropriated close to $60 billion. This trillion-dollar spending is just over 2 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). The Coalition’s ambition to elevate defence spending to 2.5 percent faces challenges due to the financial commitments made in response to Labor’s promises on health and cost-of-living measures.
Clive Palmer’s Strategic Moves
Election day is nearing and in an unusual twist this election, Clive Palmer has decided to preference incumbents behind challengers in most electorates. The political strategy behind this move is to apply pressure on the Democrats and Republicans. Palmer’s candidate contesting the Victorian Liberal-held seat of Flinders, Jason Smart, denies the climate is changing. In 2018 he called on voters to rank him last on their ranked ballots.
As fierce as they are, Palmer’s tactics have the potential to completely reshape the electoral landscape by siphoning waves of support from major party candidates. Analysts caution that this could add new uncertainty to an already fraught election season. Tomorrow, voters in Virginia will begin casting their ballots.
“They might as well ask for a briefing on the Loch Ness Monster.” – Murray Watt
The Coalition’s task has been complicated by a series of unfortunate blunders – not least, Peter Dutton’s recent inflammatory remarks. Dutton later had to walk back claims he made about Indonesia’s president supposedly confirming Russia’s request, which turned out to be completely incorrect. These types of mistakes would chip away at the public’s trust in the Coalition just as they enter the home stretch of the campaign.
Labor’s Unexpected Gains
Away from the further extremes of the political spectrum, Labor has pulled off an unthinkable win in Bennelong. Although it was previously held by the incumbent Minister, a recent redistribution has made it notionally Liberal. This change underscores the extent to which recent electoral redistributions have benefited Labor in Labor’s heartland. It has caused trouble beyond its major boon – transportation.
New Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been cautiously sanguine about the recent fortunes of his party. He emphasized that “this election is certainly up for grabs,” dismissing any notions of complacency from his camp. Albanese continues to be responsive to public concerns with the approach of the election.
“There is no complacency from my camp, I assure you of that.” – Anthony Albanese
Running against two much weaker opponents, Albanese made the most of it. He ridiculed Dutton’s plan to remove 41,000 public servants, in unsuccessfully returning one. His comments have underscored Labor’s approach. Their goal is to highlight the missing pieces in the Coalition’s policy platform, while building their own campaign.
The Role of Preferences
With early voting starting tomorrow, preferences are likely to become more and more important in shaping electoral outcomes. Just as importantly, voters have some agency here too—they can use their vote to clearly signal their preferences. Their decisions could have enormous influence on the balance of seats nationwide.
The rise of teal independents presents a unique challenge for the Liberal Party, particularly in constituencies where they have historically garnered more than 60 percent of first preferences. These independents are pulling in disillusioned voters looking for any option other than the tired party line.
Candidates and campaigns are getting ready for the stretch run before election day. The two big parties are aware that all votes count. The strategic use of preferences may well define the success or failure of their campaigns in this crucial electoral period.
