As Anzac Day approaches, marking the traditional start of the sowing season, farmers across Australia’s southern states are anxiously monitoring weather forecasts. As rain has continued to evade the state, providers are readjusting their plans and bracing for another tough year. Ryan Milgate, a grain grower near Minyip, has taken a big step. Because of the dry weather that has continued through this year, he has decided to grow hay rather than canola.
This year, South Australia is on course to grow a record total – an estimated 5.2 million tons of grain – for the 2024-2025 season. That’s the lowest rate of production we’ve had since 2008-2009. That’s an appalling 43 percent decrease from the five-year average. Yet local farmers still find it hard out there. That unprecedented moisture pattern has led many producers to start crops in soil that was hard as a rock. This is a clear consequence of successive years of drought.
Through all of these trying conditions, Milgate is very positive looking ahead into the indoor season. He recognizes the challenges, but insists that farmers have no choice but to keep praying for rain and better weather.
Dry Conditions Persist
Ryan Milgate is making the decision to grow hay instead of canola. This decision is very much in keeping with his conservative approach to farming during the drought years. The situation is not getting any better, as soil moisture on his farm remains dangerously low. As a result, he ultimately chooses not to plant canola, which has greater risks and expenses during years of low rainfall.
The outlook for the next several months still favors below-normal rainfall. According to Mr. Perry, a local ag expert, many growers will likely need to dry common seed. He believes this will be important as the landscape continues to evolve. His remarks underscore the difficult predicaments that farmers such as Milgate encounter. They have been dealing with unprecedented drought for the last four years.
Milgate’s moisture probes alert him that his soil is dry enough to disqualify a crop from producing a sizeable harvest. Even so, he hasn’t given up on a more positive future. “There’s a bit about, it’s still trying, so fingers crossed it tries a bit harder,” he expressed.
Weather Impact on Farming Decisions
Small farmers such as Whitney Wright are beginning their planting and production season. The extremely dry conditions this year have caused her to begin before she normally would. From the 11 April she started planting beans, lupins and lentils across the Eyre Peninsula. Wright and her husband have faced additional summer costs. Thanks in part to heavy rains that spurred rapid weed growth, this year they had to spray more than ever before.
Predictably, the mood from producers of grains is cautious at best. Some, like Denver, are revising their plans in light of new realities and predictions. “The challenge is that there’s virtually no sub-soil moisture so it’s a really different game when it comes to dry seeding this year in the drought,” Mr. Perry noted.
As you can see below, two weeks ago, Dale Ramsay, a farmer from nearby Millewa, welcomed a good drenching. This rain provided the opportunity for him to sow down his first winter crop! “We’ve had half a year’s rainfall in November, pretty much topped up the subsoil from the previous year, and then with that recent 25mm we’ve been able to kick off our seeding program,” he explained.
The Broader Agricultural Landscape
South Australian farmers are increasingly concerned about the depth of the declining grain yields. Yet at the same time, they find it difficult to rein in their fiscal ardor. Mr. Perry describes how parts of the country have experienced two to four consecutive years of drought. This perennial challenge has created a huge economic burden for farmers. We’ve already started to witness the banks refusing to provide finance in certain spaces. We’re already hearing on the verge of needing to go into farm debt mediation already,” he emphasized.
The disastrous, multi-year drought takes an enormous toll on agricultural operations. It damages producers’ mental health and well-being, too. “I think it’s going to be a really tough time, not only for farm businesses and income but for mental health and wellbeing,” Perry remarked.
Even with these hurdles and uncertainties underfoot, farmers are still planting hope this season for rain and bountiful harvests in the future. And they enter the sowing season with an unyielding faith in their vocation. Even in the face of adversity, they represent strength and keep moving ahead.
