India’s relationship with Pakistan is facing an immense crisis. This tension comes on the heels of the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killing 26 Indian tourists. This event has reignited longstanding tensions over the contested region of Kashmir, which both nations claim and control in parts separated by the Line of Control, the de facto border. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has responded with increased military readiness, asserting that Indian armed forces have “complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing” of their response.
The April 22 attack has enraged the Indian government and people to their core. For them the targeting of innocent civilians is an indefensible crime that must not go unpunished. Since the attack, the Indian administration has focused the blame directly to Pakistan, even though Islamabad has denied any link to this attack. Modi’s government has vowed to chase down the “terrorists and their backers … to the ends of the earth,” reflecting the heightened emotional climate surrounding this incident.
The human rights situation on the ground in Kashmir is even more complicated. It’s a Muslim-majority region, which has given the persistent conflict historical and cultural importance. Yet as tensions continue to escalate, Modi is increasingly coming under the spotlight from both Indian stakeholders and global observers who are helplessly watching to act more severely against Pakistan.
Historical Context of Kashmir Conflict
Kashmir has long been a source of conflict between India and Pakistan since their partition in 1947. Both countries have ever since claimed the territory as their own, resulting in three major wars and constant military clashes to this day. Today, India occupies more than half of Kashmir. On the other hand, Pakistan controls a much smaller area, and both countries have stationed an enormous military human resource along the LINE OF CONTROL (LoC).
As tensions rise in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, specialists discuss the impact on regional stability. Ian Hall, a professor of international relations at Griffith University, stated, “We’ve got pretty good evidence that elements of the Pakistan establishment and military are close with these groups,” suggesting a deeper connection between terrorist organizations and state actors in Pakistan.
Political analyst Amber Shamsi draws attention to this pattern of attack, which has its roots in Pakistan. She notes, “obviously based on a pattern that Pakistan has demonstrated, which our former prime ministers have spoken about,” although she cautions that allegations must be grounded in solid evidence. “The problem is the allegation this time is based on a pattern, not on solid evidence,” she added.
Military Readiness and Strategic Responses
In reaction to the Pahalgam attack, India has increased its military posture to a higher level of alertness. Modi’s pronouncement of operational freedom for the armed forces indicates a potential shift towards more aggressive actions against perceived threats. Retired Indian Army General Raj Shukla elaborated on India’s strategic options, stating that “between terror and the nuclear threshold, there’s a whole lot of space for conventional operations.”
Risk of miscalculation looms large, with experts urging restraint to avoid a spillover that could lead to more regional escalation. “Unless there is something to defuse these tensions, something that provides a face-saving way out, there’s very little anyone can do,” said Ajai Shukla. Yet, even in the face of Modi’s more bellicose rhetoric, many observers think that the Indian military retaliation has been mostly symbolic in the past. “The action India took last time seemed mostly symbolic; there was not much damage, so maybe they will do something like that again,” Shamsi remarked.
Even though Modi’s government seems to be willing to respond firmly, it pays to think twice before it puts leather on the line. Subir Sinha pointed out that “his domestic support base is baying for war” and that calibrating an appropriate response will be tricky under these circumstances.
Nuclear Risks and International Implications
India and Pakistan each have a similar number of nuclear weapons—about 172 warheads in India and 170 in Pakistan. This reality makes it all the more troubling that any escalation is even a possibility after such military provocation. Lieutenant General Shukla underscored that despite leaving open the nuclear option, members of the Pakistani establishment are intelligent enough not to “go up the nuclear ladder.”
The threat of nuclear war hangs heavy over any potential misstep between the two countries. Ian Hall speculated on possible military strategies India might adopt: “It’s entirely possible they try to strike at targets in Pakistan using sea-based missiles, because Pakistan’s air defenses are on high alert and watching very carefully across the line of control [in Kashmir].”
As military tensions rapidly increase, both states should act carefully and responsibly to this very tense situation in order to deter a potentially catastrophic outcome. With every alarming recent development, the entire international community (including us) holds our breath, hoping for de-escalation, but fearing more violence by the day.
