Farmers all around Western Australia find themselves at the mercy of unpredictable weather that is severely affecting their seeding windows. Key growers, including Meredith Guthrie, Leigh Strange, and Lloyd Cripps, share insights on rainfall expectations and the implications for farming operations. As we move through April, there is no question that timely, beneficial rains will be the biggest factor in determining success for our producers this year across Texas.
Having grown row-crops, Meredith Guthrie, a century farm-rooted operator, stated without rain we can’t even begin seeding. She clarified that a threshold of 10 mm is important in order to activate this mechanism. “If we get that 10+ millimeters we will get going,” she stated, emphasizing the importance of meeting this benchmark to ensure successful planting. Earlier this week, that weather forecast looked pretty good. What was just a day ago seeming like an ushering in of substantial weekend rainfall is no longer so promising.
Producers such as Leigh Strange of Bruce Rock experienced below normal average falls last year. Their eyes have turned skyward and they now pray for a meager 5 to 10 millimetres this storm. We began seeding canola the first few days of April. But we’ve had just a couple of storms go through that have really rained stuff out right quick,” he said. As we saw with salmon, growers still deal with constant unpredictability around rainfall. This uncertainty complicates their decision-making as they look ahead toward the 2024 planting season.
Rainfall Variability Across Regions
The distribution of rainfall across Western Australia has been hugely skewed this April. Even though other places—including on the dry side of the Cascades—have missed out on ample precipitation. Guthrie explained that areas around Geraldton have had less than 10 millimeters of rain all month. At the same time, southern regions such as Harvey and Waroona are very much lacking in moisture.
We’ve had isolated thunderstorms kissing the coast the past month but we’ve had this blocking high pressure system sitting over the south-west land division. So that’s been preventing a lot of the other systems coming in,” she said. This uncertainty in precipitation significantly complicates the farming calculus, largely as individual growers react and accommodate to their personal conditions.
Lloyd Cripps from West Binnu hopes for double digit rainfall. Related Through the Farmer’s Lens agrivoltaics livestock He doesn’t intend to begin dried seed broadcasting until then. He reports seeing a trend of seasonal breaks occurring later in the academic year. This observation has caused him to reconsider his planting schedule. We got surprised last year due to the late breakout. We’re just playing the season out to the fullest,” he said. He highlighted the importance of making strategic decisions as we face ongoing changes to environmental conditions.
Current Seeding Programs and Future Expectations
As producers make determinations about their status, many are already well into their planting schedules. Galcik noted that Gairdner’s Brianna Jones just told her she is 50% done sowing this year. “This situation puts me in a good stead to get onto some maintenance and get started on the wheat,” she indicated.
Barry West, from Kulin, finds himself in a position similar to 2018. He started off hot in March, but with moisture conditions now dry, he’ll need to have a calculated approach going forward. “We were in a dry strip last year but this year is the polar opposite. So I guess that’s the swings and roundabouts of farming,” Leigh Strange remarked, reflecting on the unpredictability of agricultural operations.
Guthrie is happy to see more rain, but he understands the threats that come with late-season breaks. “Farmers might pick up a little bit but nowhere near enough for a break in the north,” she cautioned. She noted that a nice rainfall event in the next week might set off a rush to act by a lot of the farmers. They’re ready to begin “pulling the trigger” on their seeding plans.
