The 500-kilogram Kosmos 482 probe is a historic remnant of the Soviet space race. Experts expect it to crash land on Earth sometime within the next 48 hours. The orbiter launched to study Venus in 1972. After more than 50 years of making global measurements from its unique perch high above Earth, the spacecraft’s orbit has slowly been falling apart. Astronomers and space experts are now closely monitoring its descent as it approaches a potential landing time of 12:37 PM AEST on Saturday, May 10, though some estimates suggest it may land as early as 8 PM AEST on Friday.
Kosmos 482 is in a decaying orbit. Its altitude has a considerable range, dropping down to roughly 140 kilometers at its lowest and climbing up to nearly 260 kilometers at its highest. The re-entry window is getting shorter, raising anxiety over exactly where it will come down. In fact, public concern over the risks connected to these technologies is rising. For those in the know, solar activity wreaks havoc with the accuracy of those landing predictions. This results in a fast changing landscape that’s thrilling to watch play out.
The Journey of Kosmos 482
At first, Kosmos 482 was meant to be a Venus explorer but succumbed rapidly after its launch. The mission was intended to gather vital information about the planet’s atmosphere, but the probe’s malfunction left it stranded in Earth’s orbit. As time goes on, its orbital fate has been quickly unravelling. This decline increases the danger of re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
Marco Langbroek, an expert in satellite tracking, has said their models always accurately forecast a re-entry. They expect that to happen in the next few days of May 9 or 10. He went on to explain the difficulty in predicting the re-entry trajectory of Kosmos 482 with high precision.
“Subtle nuances can make a huge difference.” – Marco Langbroek
The probe’s trajectory is in fact significantly shaped by solar activity. Variability in solar conditions leads to changes in the density of Earth’s atmosphere. This can lead to re-entry times being scheduled sooner or later than planned. Langbroek commented that should solar activity be higher than predicted, Kosmos 482 may descend earlier than forecast.
“If solar activity in the coming days is higher than predicted, [Kosmos 482] will come down earlier. If it is lower, it will come down later,” – Marco Langbroek
Risk Assessment and Re-Entry
As Kosmos 482 moves up to new orbit, experts are calculating the possibility of imminent danger from its return. Even though the probe’s trajectory mostly passes over water, there remains a small chance that it could land in Australia. Langbroek calmed jitters about safety.
“The risk of the re-entry affecting a major population centre in Australia … is low.” – Marco Langbroek
Kosmos 482 had been purpose-built to survive the harsh environment of Venus’ atmosphere. As a result, it might have had a much greater likelihood of surviving re-entry than conventional spacecraft. It is still a very fast descent even with a parachute deployed, as seen in photos from last July. Nevertheless, it would be perfectly possible to go at roughly 250 kilometers per hour with that.
“You’re not getting a cloud of shrapnel that’s falling down.” – Marlon Sorge
The re-entry point for these spacecraft is usually around 125 kilometers (78 miles) above Earth. As Kosmos 482 comes within this important threshold, scientists are still watching its trajectory with caution.
Observing the Descent
Accuracy is everything Experts such as Bill Barrett have crowed about the finesse of the final calculations in advance of re-entry. Importantly, they showcase the different parameters that influence prediction, including atmospheric conditions and the mass of a vehicle.
“Where’s the Earth’s atmosphere at the moment? … Do we have our calculations right? Do we have the mass of the vehicle right?” – Bill Barrett
While excitement mounts about where Kosmos 482 may eventually land, space enthusiasts and scientists alike will have to stay tuned. The story is just another example of how space exploration keeps on benefiting Earth long after missions end.
