India has just formally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, an essential water-sharing accord brokered by the World Bank and signed between India and Pakistan in 1960. This shocking move came only hours after a significant national security decision—the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. This prompt reaction raised concerns over a further increase of volatility in the region. The treaty’s purpose is to distribute critical water resources from the Indus Basin. This resource is immensely important for both countries, and in particular Pakistan, where the Indus and its tributaries often provide the water needed to sustain crops and daily use.
The Indus Basin includes several key rivers, such as the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, which are essential to Pakistan’s agricultural sector. India’s surprise suspension of the treaty has sparked a furor in neighboring Pakistan. Officials there are rightly condemning the move, referring to it as “an act of war.” The resulting crisis raised alarms about drinking water security. The greater dangers to both countries are truly distressing — in part due to the nuclear arsenals they each possess.
India’s decision to suspend the treaty coincides with its accelerated plans to build hydroelectric dams on the Chenab River located in India-administered Kashmir. These changes have led to a panic in Pakistan regarding possible Indian water diversions. Such moves may be unlikely, but they would greatly aggravate the already fraught bilateral relations between the two countries.
Historical Context of the Indus Waters Treaty
Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty was a landmark agreement aimed at resolving water disputes between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty’s terms, India received rights to three eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—while Pakistan was allocated three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The deal was designed to encourage collaboration over water resources and avoid conflicts over them while water scarcity was fueling wider security tensions.
The treaty’s framework stipulates mechanisms for ongoing negotiation and arbitration, which have provided a longstanding structure for the two countries to resolve their differences peacefully. India’s recent suspending of the treaty has brought about doubts regarding its future.
“The treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or terminated,” said Ayesha Malik, an expert on water policy.
Her comments illustrate the worries increasingly expressed that India’s actions may reverse decades of cooperative initiatives.
Implications for Water Security in Pakistan
Pakistan relies on the Indus Basin for much of its agricultural output. More than 80% of the nation’s water supply is derived from this crucial geographic area. These rising tensions have dire consequences not only on Pakistan’s food security, but its water security as well. Without reliable access to real-time data on water flows from India, Pakistani farmers face uncertainty regarding irrigation and planting schedules.
“Eighty percent of Pakistan’s water comes from the Indus basin; this isn’t about India getting short-changed in the treaty—Pakistan’s food and water security hang in the balance,” Malik added.
Concerns are now growing that India could use the treaty’s suspension to dictate when and how much water flows into Pakistan. Such a future threatens catastrophic impacts both on agriculture and Pakistanis’ everyday lives.
The Road Ahead: Concerns and Reactions
India’s recent moves in Kashmir have elicited sharp criticism from a host of political and diplomatic circles. Many analysts worry that this anger is because the current conflict is not just about sharing water.
“This is a conflict over terrorism between two nuclear powers, with water as a secondary source of leverage—which is very worrying,” said Uzair Sattar, highlighting the precarious nature of security in the region.
India has, so far unsuccessfully, pushed for other changes to the treaty. They try to solve mounting demands from a growing population and climate change, further muddying the waters.
“Without the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms, nothing is stopping them from altering flows in ways that could severely harm Pakistan,” Malik warned.
Our current situation provides a valuable opportunity to understand an important connection between climate policy and international relations. Both countries are struggling hands-on with the management of their resources as environmental stress sharply increases.
