Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has been the first to sound the alarm on imminent Russian military maneuvers in the Baltic Sea. His alarm follows two recent episodes in which a Russian fighter jet invaded NATO airspace. He made a strong case for more air-policing patrols over the Baltic, to keep eyes on a rapidly worsening situation.
Additionally, Estonia’s small navy recently intercepted a suspicious ship named Jaguar that engaged in drug trafficking. This ship was sailing without flag or insurance, triggering the alarm. This was a pointed interception, taking place just two days before the Russian fighter jet’s dangerous incursion into NATO territory. Tsahkna characterized this breach as unprecedented, stating, “This fighter jet violated NATO territory, for one minute. This is something very new.”
The Jaguar is thought to be one of Russia’s shadow fleet— a group of old tankers purchased via opaque methods. These vessels often flag out to countries such as Gabon and the Cook Islands. This strategy enables Russia to bypass international sanctions imposed in response to its war with Ukraine. This shadow fleet even helps Russian oil exporters avoid the price cap of $60 per barrel—imposed on them by Ukraine’s allies —by hiding where their ships are going.
Tsahkna highlighted the gravity of the situation, asserting, “We need to understand that the situation is really serious.” As a result, Estonia’s navy has increased its monitoring and oversight over maritime activities in the Baltic Sea. They are especially paying attention to the increased role of non-sanctioning actors from countries such as the United Arab Emirates and the Marshall Islands. In February, authorities increased their list by adding 70 more vessels. This list quickly grew to include more than 50 suspected ships linked to this opaque network.
The intercepted Jaguar further calls into question the operational transparency and legality of Russia’s maritime activities. Estonia has serious challenges. For Tsahkna, the answer is more air patrols as a deterrent against Russian aggression and to protect the Baltics from potential danger.
