Uterine cancer is the most prevalent gynecologic cancer in the United States today. By 2050, we expect there will be more than 1 million annual cases. Yet the National Cancer Institute projects that close to 70,000 people will be diagnosed with uterine cancer in 2024 alone. New data shows that these numbers more than doubled. This is particularly troubling for Black women, who are already dying from the disease at a disproportionate rate.
The increase in cases of uterine cancer can be attributed to a few major factors. Specifically, the most significant factors are our aging population and rising obesity levels. A new report from the National Cancer Institute predicts that, by 2050, the number of new uterine cancer cases will increase among Black women by more than 50%. By comparison, white women only face a 30% increase on average. Alarmingly, Black women are now twice as likely to die of uterine cancer than white women. By 2050, the situation behind this shocking statistic is only expected to get worse. Projections indicate people will be three times more likely to die from the disease.
Elena Elkin, a researcher focused on cancer disparities, underscores the importance of addressing these risk factors to lower the incidence of uterine cancer. “Like many cancers, uterine cancer is a disease of aging,” she notes. “Another major factor is the increase in overweight and obesity in the U.S. population.” The dual challenge of an aging demographic and rising obesity rates must be addressed now!
Demographic changes are only one part of the equation. Reduced hysterectomies for easily treatable conditions such as fibroids and endometriosis have contributed to increased incidence of uterine cancer. For decades, hysterectomies have been used as a preventive approach to certain kinds of cancers. As their frequency decreases, we might finally start to see an increase in incidence cases popping up.
While these projections are certainly alarming, new developments provide some reason for hope when it comes to survival rates. Uterine cancer carries an overall five-year survival rate of about 81%. This number changes considerably depending on how aggressive the cancer is. For patients unfortunate enough to be diagnosed with the most aggressive forms of the disease, the life-or-death stakes are even more acute. The five-year survival rate falls to just 20–50%. This significant gap underscores the critical importance of early diagnosis and intervention.
Elkin emphasizes that early detection plays a crucial role in improving survival outcomes. “Survival outcomes are generally good because most cancers are diagnosed at an early stage,” she states. As advocates, researchers and community leaders have long pointed out, Black women are at greater risk of developing uterine cancer. Second is that they are often diagnosed much later, which restricts their treatment choices.
The development and acceptance of an effective screening test could have a profound impact on the future of uterine cancer diagnosis and management. Elkin points out, “We don’t yet have a test that is accurate enough to provide the maximum benefit and minimum harm.” This suggests the need for widespread creation of screening models that would be able to more positively identify emerging technologies for better detection.
“Population-level changes in overweight and obesity, perhaps through improved access to the current generation of weight loss medications, could lead to reductions in uterine cancer cases in the future,” Elkin explains.
