Pacific island nations are on the frontlines as climate change increasingly makes vulnerable their critical tuna fisheries. Dr. Graham Pilling, a NOAA marine biologist, explains that the tuna stock in the western central pacific is very important. He refers to it as “the last truly healthy fish stock on the planet.” For instance, climate change is shifting tuna migration patterns and changing fish abundance. This move would have a hugely negative effect on the economies of countries that rely on tuna fishing income.
Pacific tuna fisheries bring in about $US500 million a year in landed value to the Pacific. For small island countries such as Tuvalu, this revenue is immensely important, making up almost 40 percent of its government revenue. To generate needed revenue, the country sells fishing days to other nations, capping the number of fishing days each country can claim. This strategy is designed to promote sustainable fishing practices and to open up new economic opportunities for coastal communities.
The Vessel Day Scheme (VDS) introduced by PNA parties around 2010/2011. Its original intent was not just to deal with bycatch, it was to sustainably control tuna populations. Climate change is altering tuna migration patterns. Consequently, these changes can severely undercut the hard-fought conservation gains and lead to increased fish mortality across the Pacific.
Climate Change and Tuna Migration
According to Dr. Josie Tamate, climate change is already affecting tuna migration patterns. The warming El Niño conditions are leading these fish to make an eastern-most migration in years. Natural environmental factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, affect water temperatures in a belt across the Pacific, significantly influencing the distribution of tuna.
According to Dr. Pilling, “the common perception that it’s all tuna out there in the Pacific, well that’s going to go away. He calculates that within exclusive economic zones in the western central Pacific, this decrease might even be about 13 percent on average. Such changes are a deep worry for the whole Pacific region as they impact both food security and local economies.
The EEZs of 22 Pacific island nations and territories stretch across a space more than 1.5 times the size of the continental United States. In reality, they cover over five times the area of Australia! Dr. Pilling notes that this expansive territory poses challenges for effective management and monitoring of tuna stocks, particularly as warmer ocean temperatures and acidification push tuna populations into new territories.
“It’s a pretty big issue. And it’s a concerning issue,” – Dr Graham Pilling
Economic Implications for Pacific Island Nations
Pacific nations such as Palau and Tuvalu rely on selling industrial fishing licenses to countries like the United States, Japan, and China. These licenses are a huge driver of government revenue. During the most profitable year, Tuvalu’s fishing licenses have brought in $US35 million to $50 million.
The financial mechanism that was created through the VDS has further enabled these countries to sustainably steward their resources and bring in revenue. Climate change is pushing tuna out of their long-existing range and changing their migratory path. This shift puts these countries’ economic security at risk.
Local fisher Ann Singeo performs poetically to show her pain. Singeo elaborates on the connection between climate change and fishing exploitation. She is concerned that “the world will just be too late when they do start taking this issue seriously.” Her perspective underscores the urgency felt by many in the region who depend on these fish stocks for their livelihoods.
“If we do nothing now, that’s not an option. We have to do something. Each of us has a responsibility,” – Dr Tamate
Responses to Climate Challenges
In February 2025, the Green Climate Fund announced a grant of more than $US100 million for 14 Pacific countries aimed at helping them manage the risks posed by climate impacts on tuna. These grants will go to local efforts to help communities change as conditions change and safeguard their valuable fisheries.
Dr. Pilling notes that identifying various scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions can help predict future climate impacts on tuna stocks. This proactive approach offers Pacific nations the opportunity to develop informed strategies. By prioritizing adaptability, they would be better able to avoid adverse impacts and maintain their fisheries long-term.
To counter climate change, one of the loudest advocates for regional cooperation in the Pacific, Kofe argues that collaboration among Pacific nations is key. He points to the success of these countries in achieving convergence of their laws and management measures. As a consequence, they have done a terrific job avoiding overfishing their tunas.
“One of the success stories of regionalism in the Pacific is how the Pacific nations have come together to really harmonise their laws and their management measures,” – Simon Kofe
Though these efforts are laudable, Kofe is realistic about the disproportionate burden Pacific island nations continue to carry with respect to impacts of climate change. He claims that “the world is not looking at it like that.” This underlines the urgent need for global awareness, affinity and solidarity with these vulnerable communities.
