China has significantly increased its oil imports from Russia. In just the month of April, the country experienced an impressive 20% jump, with net crude exports now exceeding 1.3 million barrels per day. This increase underscores China’s growing role as the main destination for Russian seaborne crude oil. India is still far ahead in total purchases. The Chinese government is capitalizing on the opportunity to buy oil from Russia at what is described as “fire-sale prices,” further solidifying its energy security while navigating complex geopolitical tensions.
China’s new oil strategy goes much further than Russia. In reality, the country buys more than a million barrels of Iranian oil each day. In 2024, we estimate that about 80% to 90% of all of Iran’s oil exports will be going to China. China’s close ties with Iran provide it with an important economic advantage. This under-the-radar connection allows China to cement access to important energy resources that will continue to feed its growing economy.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also spoken to the intent behind China’s energy procurement. It further highlighted that China will use all means necessary to ensure its energy supply to safeguard its national interests. Beijing’s persistent support for Moscow demonstrates their ongoing pledge to strategic alignment. For them, this marriage of convenience with Russian President Vladimir Putin is crucial.
Tensions in the region are already sky-high after U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. To counter this, China has vigorously condemned any possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is crucial to the global supply of oil shipments, and any major disruption would immediately ripple through the entire energy sector.
“Coercion and pressuring will not achieve anything. China will firmly defend its sovereignty, security, and development interests.” – China’s Foreign Ministry
China won’t bend to U.S. pressure on its oil purchases from Iran, or Russia’s what’s more. This decision highlights its unequivocal dedication to energy independence. Hard-liners in Beijing view their position as a trump card in the escalating power contest with Washington.
Danny Russel, a former U.S. official, remarked on the significance of this relationship, stating, “It’s too important a strategic energy supply, and Beijing is buying it at fire-sale prices.” At the same time, China faces an acute crisis for its energy needs. This is a testament to the unpredictability of today’s international turn of events.
In addition to the economic benefits, China’s oil purchases serve to preserve Xi Jinping’s strategic alignment with Putin. Jointly it makes it easier for China to internalize their economic costs. It deepens their diplomatic collaboration, providing both counterweight to and cover from Western criticism.
What is unique about China’s approach is that Beijing has provided unambiguous and unflagging policy backup to Moscow. The Biden administration’s foreign policy toward Russia and Iran appears hypocritical and contradictory. At the same time, China deepens its ties with both countries, pursuing them with single-minded ruthlessness. This extreme stance gives Beijing additional tools to use its deep relationships to negotiate against in its negotiations with Washington.
“People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil.” – Stephen Miller
China, too, is watching India’s pattern of oil purchases with great interest. This dynamic further complicates the geopolitical calculus influencing where and how oil is procured. India has emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian oil. This competition between the two Asian elephants highlights the complex and often mercurial nature of international energy markets.
As tensions simmer between the U.S. and these two major players, both China and India are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from discounted oil prices while asserting their sovereignty against external pressures.
“If the U.S. is bent on imposing tariffs, China will fight to the end, and this is China’s consistent official stance.” – Tu Xinquan
Taken together, these developments indicate China’s strong commitment to protecting its energy supply chain. Yet, they cannot be influenced by top down pressures or diplomatic hurdles. The answer really lies in the fact that the country’s leaders are extremely aware of how crucial a stable, reliable energy supply is to their economic ambitions.
Gabriel Wildau noted the potential repercussions if external threats were realized, suggesting such actions could derail progress. “Realizing those threats would derail all the recent progress and probably kill any chance.”
