As the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders meeting approaches in Honiara this September, expectations are mounting on Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele. Notably, people are worried about Taiwan’s potential participation in the event. Traditionally, the forum has had Taiwan in attendance as a “development partner.” This year’s gathering is mired in difficulties, especially with rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with China. Australia and New Zealand are advocating for Taiwan’s inclusion, while Beijing is urging Solomon Islands to exclude Taiwan entirely, creating a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
Jeremiah Manele, right, in Beijing last year, as the Solomon Islands took steps to strengthen their relationship with China. This visit has added to worries about Beijing’s encroaching influence in the region and increasingly aggressive posture towards Taiwan. It was the first time China expressed its displeasure at the PIF leaders’ summit last year in Tonga. This response followed multiple restatements of support for Taiwan at PIF Ministerial meetings.
The Solomon Islands has recently faced some of the most intense criticism. They refused to grant visas to Taiwanese officials who attempted to join Honiara in advance of their own delegation. This move plays directly into China’s long time strategy of diplomatically isolating Taiwan. This creates new pressure on Manele as he works to balance the expectations of important regional partners and the major global powers.
Growing International Pressure
Australia and New Zealand have been very active in expressing support for Taiwan’s inclusion in the next meeting of the forum. They contend that leaving Taiwan out would set a dangerous diplomatic precedent. Palau’s President, Surangel Whipps Jr., has called for action in no uncertain terms. He worries that targeting Taiwan might generate new tensions akin to the former “PIF split” that once broke the forum’s solidarity.
Political analyst Dr. Anna Powles said it was a complicated situation for Manele on several fronts. She explained that any decision to exclude Taiwan is “unlikely to please forum partners who will be looking to Honiara as a chance to jockey for favour.”
“It is clear forum leaders need to come up with a solution that respects the commitments the forum has made, respects the national interests of its members, and ensures the forum leaders’ meetings do not become a geopolitical circus,” – Dr. Anna Powles.
The stakes are high for Solomon Islands, whose relations with both China and its traditional allies are under unprecedented strain. Australia and New Zealand are exerting pressure because of higher geopolitical concerns in the Pacific. Regional nations seek to maintain their independence from outside powers while balancing those same powers against one another.
Solomon Islands’ Proposed Compromise
The clock is ticking and Prime Minister Manele is under a lot of pressure. He’s expected to call for deferring the start of the annual PIF partners’ dialogue until a complete assessment of the regional diplomatic architecture is completed. This recommendation addresses the concerns surrounding Taiwan’s participation. It provides Pacific leaders an opportunity to reevaluate their current partnerships.
Dr. Powles pointed out that this compromise could help “de-escalate a geopolitically charged situation,” but she cautioned that it indicates how geopolitics has increasingly influenced the Forum Leaders Meeting. She noted that limiting the meeting to only PIF members would allow for “fewer distractions” from the forum’s huge slate of agenda items.
“If Beijing was not placing pressure on Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manele would presumably be able to uphold the 1992 Honiara Communique, which affirms that Taiwan should be able to meet its allies on the margins of the PIF leaders meeting,” – Dr. Anna Powles.
The draft deferment also exposes the challenges that Pacific nations face. Indeed, they need to walk the line between what they want and what these outside forces want. The forum’s leaders are clearly intent on finding a way forward. They need to prudently steer their way through the mounting geopolitical competition in the Pacific.
The Future of Pacific Diplomacy
PIF leaders will convene this September to tackle these and other urgent matters. A core issue will be Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka’s proposed “Ocean of Peace” framework. Dr. Powles emphasized the importance of these conversations, especially in light of the increasing tensions in the area.
“It may be timely to consider a code of conduct to prevent future undermining of the regional architecture,” – Dr. Anna Powles.
A spokesperson for Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade expressed support for the forum’s ongoing engagement with international partners. The spokesperson stated that “the forum values its engagement at the annual leaders meeting, which provides an opportunity to strengthen the Pacific’s voice in global affairs.”
In many respects, the Solomon Islands finds itself at a critical crossroads. Its decision on how it chooses to engage with both Taiwan and China will surely shape the future of regional diplomacy across the Pacific. The decisions made in Honiara may serve as a critical test of alliances and set a precedent for how similar situations are handled in the future.
