That’s no small task when President Trump’s proposed budget cuts are threatening the future of global weather forecasting. They gut funding for key agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA. More than 1,000 jobs have already disappeared at NOAA due to prior funding cuts. Now, the proposed budget for 2026 is raising alarm bells for scientists and meteorologists not just in the United States, but across the world.
The proposed budget outlines substantial funding reductions for NOAA’s main research arm, which is set for elimination, alongside a near halving of NASA’s science branch budget. These cuts come on the heels of widespread workforce reductions that started soon after Donald Trump won re-election in January. Unfortunately, hundreds of experienced scientific and technical staff have left NOAA as a result. The influence extends well beyond the United States. Historic key observatories, such as Mauna Loa — critical for their long-term climate monitoring data — will be closing. This facility has been instrumental in establishing the historical scientific record of atmospheric CO₂ levels, which began in 1958.
The prospect of these cuts have sent international meteorological communities into a panic. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)/Data from NOAA, as well as other global contributors, support creation of accurate long-range weather forecasts. Shrinking budgets will inevitably undermine the precision of those forecasts, particularly for four-day forecasts.
Impact on Global Weather Forecasting
Meteorological organizations all over the world are impacted, as they rely almost exclusively on data generated by US agencies. Take, for example, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), which already utilizes ECMWF models on a daily basis to provide reliable, high-quality weather forecasts. With the impending closures of key observatories and drastic cuts to NOAA’s funding, experts warn that the BOM may face significant challenges in maintaining forecast accuracy.
Dr. Andrew Watkins, a Monash University research scientist, echoed his frustration about Australia’s reliance on US data. He urged that Australia should reconsider its reliance on US climate data. Further, he called on the nation to fill any holes these budget cuts leave behind.
“The US has actually been probably the global exemplar here … for handing out data freely, making it open access to everything from their satellites, from their models, their ships, from their ocean buoys,” – Dr. Watkins.
With the risk of interrupting over fifty years of atmospheric measurement records, experts like Dr. Florian Pappenberger, the incoming director-general of ECMWF, have highlighted the long-term repercussions of these cuts.
“But a 50-year measurement record, if you’ve interrupted that once, you’re never going to get that data back,” – Dr. Pappenberger.
The implications should be apparent. Without consistently accurate, quality data from NOAA and other agencies across the globe, the outlook for weather forecasts and climate predictions alike is dim.
The Consequences of Politicizing Science
The recent changes in funding and staffing levels have raised concerns about the politicization of science within the Trump administration. Jay Paul WAMU Professor Ben Zaitchik of Johns Hopkins University described this development as unprecedented and alarming. He cautioned that political appointees have increasingly usurped power over scientific agencies.
“I mean, this is an unprecedented politicisation of science,” – Professor Ben Zaitchik.
These historic cuts endanger thousands of America’s weather predictions. They further alarm our country’s ability to conduct scientific research and monitor our changing environmental conditions. Dr. Watkins warned that too much dependence on data produced by US agencies would be harmful to global forecasting initiatives.
“I think it’s more around whether we are putting too many eggs in single baskets here, whether it be the US or others,” – Dr. Watkins.
Experts argue that countries must evaluate their partnerships and develop independent capabilities as climate extremes become more frequent.
“We need to think about ‘what should our national capability really be here’ and ‘who should we partner’ with… particularly as our climate gets more extreme,” – Dr. Watkins.
A Call for Action
The BOM is already moving to reduce these expected losses by building new observational data into its models. Experts tend to agree on one key thing—a better, more centralized international response is needed. This unified collaboration will make certain that weather forecasts are consistent and trustworthy, even in the context of increasing climate variability.
More than ever before, accurate forecasts are an essential part of everyday life, Professor Zaitchik explained.
“People like to complain, joke about weather forecasts, but they’re really good now. We plan our lives around them,” – Professor Ben Zaitchik.
Funding cuts are even more dangerous, threatening scientific integrity and the accuracy of weather forecasting. In light of this, scientists call on governments to unite and protect crucial climate information. The decline of forecast quality as a result of shrinking staff is an alarming reality as well.
“The forecast will not be as good. There’s no question about that,” – Dr. Pappenberger.
