just released their Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for September. This is the first big data release since former President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer earlier this month. As Congress writes the next T-Authorization, the report comes at an urgent time. The U.S. economy is heading toward a cliff of a hiring slowdown and possible recession.
Economists are forecasting inflation for July to come in at a 2.8% increase over last year. This figure reflects a 0.82% increase, a modest uptick from the previous month’s growth of 2.7%. Significantly, keep in mind that this expected inflation rate is less than the 3% we just had in January—the month that Trump assumed office.
The recently released jobs data exposes a deeply troubling reality. Employers are hiring at their slowest pace since the summer of 2020, feeding fears about the economy’s direction. Yet even as analysts sound the alarm over rising costs and stagnant employment growth, they raise alarm bells that these things could lead to stagflation, where the economy collapses but prices continue to increase.
The recent inflation report has intensified worries among public officials and private executives alike about the direction of the U.S. economy’s short-term trajectory. Recent U.S. GDP data shows that the implicit average annualized growth rate for the first half of 2025 is just 1.2%. This figure is much smaller than last year’s equally remarkable growth rate of 2.8% over the same period.
So investors have correspondingly raised the bar for when they think we’ll see an interest rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool as of this writing predicts the odds at 86%. These types of actions might be considered in order as the economy wrestles with skyrocketing inflation and a slowdown in hiring.
The federal aspect of the repeal Trump’s dismissal of McEntarfer makes things even more complicated. McEntarfer had previously been confirmed by a bipartisan Senate vote in 2024 and appointed by then-President Joe Biden. For now, BLS Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski is filling in as acting commissioner, while the Trump administration looks for a replacement.
“The Economy is BOOMING under ‘TRUMP’ despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates.” – Trump
