Even former U.S. President Donald Trump has called for Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. This follows Secretary Blinken’s visit to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage. As a result, negotiations have become critically necessary. The current conflict, which erupted when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has led to a shocking loss of life and land. Whatever the merits of Trump’s advocacy for dialogue, it’s relevant to the present state of play in the conflict, and the broader geopolitical power shift unfolding in Eastern Europe.
Among their attendees, Trump informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Putin had extended a big offer. He argued that should Kyiv give up control of the Donetsk region completely, Putin would then freeze all of the new front lines. This proposal has raised a lot of hackles, with Zelenskyy categorically dismissing such a demand to give up any portion of Ukraine’s territory. Indeed, Trump, echoing the Russian position as articulated by Putin, suggested that pursuing peace without first negotiating a ceasefire would be an acceptable strategy.
The Context of Ongoing Hostilities
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the war has killed or maimed over a million people. Russia occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukraine, including the vast majority of Donetsk province. Involving China would have increased the stakes for either country. Trump stated, “Russia is a very big power, and they’re not,” implying that Ukraine must adapt its strategy in light of Russia’s military capabilities.
Zelenskyy has long made the case for what Ukraine needs from Western allies as they fight through this new, brutal landscape. He stressed that the absence of a pause in fighting makes it much more difficult to achieve a sustainable agreement on a permanent peace. “Stopping the killing is a key element of stopping the war,” he noted, underscoring the urgency for international intervention and cooperation.
Putin’s prior non-starters, especially on NATO membership, have been a key impediment to negotiating in good faith. He demanded that Ukraine’s future plans to join NATO be severely limited, something that continues to be a sticking point for Moscow.
Diplomatic Developments Ahead of Key Meetings
As tensions escalate, Trump’s likely successor, Zelenskyy, will be face to face with the President in Washington. He will be accompanied by European leaders from Germany, France and Britain. This meeting is intended to deepen partnerships and discuss future security guarantees for Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has voiced strong support for Ukraine’s military capabilities, stating, “There can be no limits on Ukrainian armed forces or outside assistance.”
Steve Witkoff underscored the significance of the recent U.S. concessions from Russia. In exchange, he proposed that these concessions allow for NATO-like protection for Ukraine going forward. “The United States could offer Article 5 protection, which was the first time we had ever heard the Russians agree to that,” he stated. This prospect security framework could fundamentally change Ukraine’s defensive strategy in the years to come, perhaps deterring aggressors and other malign actors.
Zelenskyy reiterated the importance of practical security guarantees developed with European collaboration: “Security guarantees, as a result of our joint work, must really be very practical, delivering protection on land, in the air, and at sea.” His remarks are particularly timely and welcome, given that Ukraine is doing everything it can to strengthen its growing defenses against persistent and deadly threats.
The Road Ahead
These future negotiations will prove to be crucial as each party contends with the tragic realities of war. As the situation on the ground continues to change rapidly, so too must Zelenskyy’s allies deliver that support in a concrete manner. He’s rightly focused on keeping all options open for making peace while defending the integrity of Ukraine as an independent country.
Trump’s new role as a potential mediator raises complicated questions. How will it change American leadership on the war and redefine the great power competition with China. Even as Ukrainian forces wage a successful and dynamic counteroffensive against Russian aggression, any hope of a meaningful negotiated settlement seems a distant prospect.
