The Australian federal government has announced a transformative $2 billion initiative called “Thriving Kids,” which will provide support to children with mild to moderate developmental delays and autism. The program is largely separate from the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). It’s intended to reduce the pressure on the status quo system, which serves about 740,000 enrollees. Nearly a fourth—some 23 percent—of these participants are younger than nine. Moreover, 40 percent have been diagnosed exclusively with autism, further emphasizing the immediate need for distinctive guidance.
At a press conference, Health Minister Mark Butler launched the new initiative. He went on to assure everyone that the program would be up and running by July of next year. He reminded them that the NDIS has been on an unsustainable growth trajectory of 10.8 percent, as of June 2023. This is a staggering drop from the 20 percent increase that the Albanese government inherited when they came to power in 2022. Its costs are projected to exceed $64 billion by 2029. In fact, annual expenses may reach $105 billion over the next 10 years.
Butler expressed that families seeking additional support in mainstream services often find that such resources are lacking, stating, “Families who are looking for additional supports in mainstream services can’t find them because they largely don’t exist anymore, and in that, all governments have failed them.” This expressed desire represents an opportunity for a new program. It is designed to provide important opportunities and resources to the kids that have a hard time making it through the system as it is today.
Understanding the Need for Change
In response to increasing concerns, the “Thriving Kids” initiative has recently been launched. These concerns focus on both the sustainability and the efficacy of the NDIS. With autism diagnosis rates declining steadily to around 1 percent in individuals aged 35 to 40, and gradually rising to 2.5 percent by age 65, it becomes clear that age and developmental needs significantly influence service requirements.
Nicole Rogerson, a prominent advocate for children with autism, highlighted the importance of ensuring that children receive adequate support through this new initiative. She remarked, “The devil will be in the detail, but we are talking about putting a system there that will help children currently not thriving get the support they need, and then hopefully get on with their childhood and not needing to be in the NDIS.”
We all want the initiative to help hundreds of thousands of children flourish. It increases risks for people who may yet benefit from participation in the NDIS. Rogerson emphasized that “those with more moderate types of autism will need to remain in the NDIS because they do have a significant and lifelong disability.” This difference is important as families are making decisions with the new program.
Implications for Families and Advocacy Groups
Even though the future looks bright for the new “Thriving Kids” effort, some advocates are already sounding alarms. George Taleporos is an attorney representing families living with autism. He cautioned that moving children out of the NDIS before affordable, effective alternatives are found would mean families no longer had access to critical resources. “Taking children out of the scheme without making sure there is something better in place would risk leaving families high and dry,” he stated.
Skye Kakoschke-Moore echoed this sentiment, stating that while the initiative demonstrates a commitment to supporting children with developmental concerns or delays related to autism, there is a need for vigilance against further cuts. She said, “While [this] demonstrates some commitment to make sure children and young people with developmental concern or delay in autism are fully supported, we’d be wary of the government pursuing further cuts unless and until there’s really clear evidence that children are getting the support that they need.”
In his address, Butler acknowledged these concerns but maintained that the reforms are necessary for sustainable growth of the NDIS. To his credit, he promised that once the “Thriving Kids” program is fully rolled out, they will revise access and eligibility. Incredible news coming soon—stay tuned! “Diverting this group of kids over time from the NDIS is an important element of making the scheme sustainable and returning it to its original intent,” he said.
Future Growth and Sustainability
As part of broader efforts to reform the NDIS, Butler suggested setting a new growth target of approximately 5 or 6 percent, aligning it more closely with forecasts for aged care and Medicare. He emphasized that achieving sustainability is “not just a question of budget sustainability,” but about ensuring effective service delivery for those in need.
The NDIS’s projected costs have sparked discussions about necessary reforms such as fraud crackdowns, pricing discipline, and establishing a more rigorous evidence base for supports. Ultimately these provisions are designed to cut red tape and improve service delivery. They underscore the difficulties of running a program that does so much for so many vulnerable Australians.
Butler sought to allay fears of families enrolled in the NDIS right now, telling them they wouldn’t be shifted off the scheme, as it operates today. This is true for anyone who registers before “Thriving Kids” goes live. “Children who are enrolled in the NDIS now or become enrolled before that time will remain on the scheme subject to its usual arrangements,” he stated.
