In an extraordinary geopolitical shift, Australia has announced its decision to list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist entity. As concerns continue to grow, the IRGC becomes ever more targeted for its activities across Europe, Canada and the United States. Many more accusations of orchestrating antisemitic attacks and other violent crimes have surfaced against it. The Australian government’s move is aimed at discouraging the IRGC’s aggressive tactics, which have sought to undermine protest movements and challenge Western influence.
Behind Iran’s recent escalation, we find the main influence—an Iranian drive to deter direct attacks on its homeland. Ultimately, the Iranian regime views Western efforts to undermine its clerical leadership as an existential threat. The IRGC has adopted the principle of “asymmetric” warfare. They specifically employ extra-judicial means to silence critics in the Iranian diaspora and to challenge enemies abroad. This tactic has further escalated as the regime grows more isolated and its alliances become increasingly scarce.
The IRGC has been linked to multiple antisemitic attacks in Australia. This underscored its desire to extend its dominance far outside of its own borders. Things got a lot worse after airstrikes targeted and decapitated Iran’s military command. This caused existential panic among the IRGC and reverberated across the larger clerical establishment. Even as Iran encounters mounting sanctions and economically isolating measures, the cost is being paid by the people of Iran, making the Iranian regime more vulnerable.
“To me, listing the IRGC (by Canada) was by and large … a performative act with very little capacity to follow through on it,” stated Professor Thomas Juneau, a specialist in Iranian politics. As Finn pointed out, designations are symbolic. As we’ve seen repeatedly during the pandemic, the mid-sized countries such as Australia and Canada that tend to have the power to make major change go it alone.
The stakes of Australia’s soon-to-be-announced designation are huge. Yet classifying the IRGC as a terrorist organization brings severe consequences. Anyone who does business with it could be charged with the Australian government’s anti-terrorism laws. Canada just implemented a similar designation last year after months of discussion regarding its likely effectiveness.
“Iran has long looked at ‘asymmetric’ or irregular ways to threaten dissidents in the Iranian diaspora as well as its enemies,” noted Professor Juneau. This tactic furthers the regime’s broader aim of proving its strength. It shores up its credibility domestically as a resistance government in the face of alleged threats from Israel and the United States.
Recent incidents have shown the IRGC’s complex web of networks and operational capabilities. According to French intelligence services, the man who sparked multiple wildfires in France was a known radicalized criminal. He had allegedly already been paid by the Iranian government. In late 2023, several unrelated companies in southern France saw destructive fires linked to suspected IRGC activity.
To counter the strength of this unified opposition, the Iranian government is quickly losing military and political options. Consequently, the IRGC’s malign activities will continue to intensify. With clerical leadership emboldened, this will further strengthen efforts to project desired sentiments from a distance while continuing to crack down on dissent domestically.
“This is the kind of activity that the Islamic Republic does,” Professor Juneau remarked, underscoring the IRGC’s historical pattern of using intimidation tactics against both domestic and foreign adversaries.
