Perth has experienced its wettest winter in half a century, flooding urban neighborhoods and invigorating rural farming towns that were hobbled by years of drought. Over the past few months, powerful storms have inundated the west coast of Australia’s Western state. As a result, each temporary puddle has turned into something more permanent, now dotting the city’s foreshore. This unprecedented weather phenomenon has surprised and thrilled residents and experts alike.
Meredith Guthrie, an ecology research scientist with Western Australia’s Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD), celebrated the deluge of winter rains. She dubbed it “brilliant” for most of the agricultural communities. She reflected on the nostalgic feel of the season, stating, “It’s been like returning back to the winters of my youth … so it’s just astonishing.” As Perth basks in the unusual rainy spell, the southern and central wheatbelt regions are going through significantly dryer than normal conditions, creating an awful juxtaposition within the state.
Even with all of this rain, the future looks shaky for Perth and the entire west coast. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) shows no definite signs of more rain to come after this very wet winter. Perth is visibly the only state not to have at least some shades of blue in the below rainfall outlook. This begs a lot of questions about what the next few months will look like.
Wet Conditions and Agricultural Impact
These recent heavy rains are playing a remarkable role toward the recovery of agriculture in Western Australia. Many farmers have welcomed the moisture, which supports crop growth and replenishes water supplies. Dr. Guthrie raised awareness that this rainfall is important for maintaining production agriculture in the area.
All parts of the state do not partake in this bonanza. The southern and central wheatbelt regions are experiencing long-term rainfall shortages. Over the past year, drought has exacerbated the pain. “Towards the south-east of Australia, surface moisture hides deeper drying that has resulted from long-term rainfall deficiencies that have built over the last 12-18 months,” according to the AFAC seasonal bushfire outlook.
The disparity between the wet conditions in Perth and the dry conditions in other regions presents challenges for local farmers. If spring rainfall does not materialize, experts warn that these areas may face a heightened risk of fire due to decreased moisture levels.
Climate Drivers and Future Outlook
Another very important rain-affecting climate driver is now developing off Australia’s north-west coast—the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Negative IODs have been a notable driver of some of Australia’s wettest winters and springs on record. Sometimes referred to as the “cousin” of the El Niño Oscillation, these mutually reinforcing weather phenomena have a tremendous effect. Simon Grainger, an expert on climate patterns, noted, “We’ve had a build-up of warmer waters to the north-west coast of Australia, and the weather patterns are such that it’s more favourable then to bring moist tropical air over much of eastern Australia.”
The IOD’s impact will be felt most strongly during September and October. That’s because during this period, eastern Australia is more likely to see above-average rainfall. Grainger explained, “The strongest chances of above average rainfall are in September and October.” He warned, though, that November could continue to provide some opportunities for precipitation. Not surprisingly, those opportunities will fall to only 60-65 percent.
Climate change is resulting in more extreme weather Grainger made an important point. More cloud cover in impacted regions would increase the likelihood of precipitation. He stated, “So what we’re seeing is the increased cloudiness in those areas increases the chance of rain, but at the same time [we are] more likely to have cooler-than-usual daytime temperatures.”
Preparing for Potential Risks
While Perth finds itself in a favorable rainfall situation, experts remain vigilant regarding potential risks associated with fluctuating weather conditions. The AFAC seasonal bushfire outlook released on Friday warns that parts of the country have recorded historical low rainfall during this period. If spring rains fail to materialize as expected, the situation could quickly turn in the opposite direction to a much higher fire risk.
“It’s definitely a peak time for storms, particularly severe storms along the east coast of Australia,” Grainger said. Storms and weather patterns are always changing. Residents, policymakers and law enforcement need to be vigilant against these new developments that have the potential to devastate populated areas and cropping fields alike.
