Dr. Quilcaille and a team of researchers recently released a study that uncovered some startling truths. Their results showed that heatwaves greatly intensified within the past 25 years due to the contributions from major fossil fuel and cement producers. This unprecedented study examined the unique impacts of 180 major carbon polluters between 2000 and 2023. It shows that human-caused climate change has nearly doubled the frequency and intensity of heatwaves globally.
The findings reveal that large companies and state-run operations are responsible for making heatwaves up to 50 times more likely. In particular, the study finds that a quarter of heatwaves so far this century would have been “virtually impossible” without anthropogenic emissions. Famous culprits such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, ExxonMobil, and BP consistently place in the top 5 of these offenders. Collectively, they have amplified the intensity of extreme weather across the country.
This study represents a landmark moment. It’s particularly misleading when you put it in the context of very real historical events such as Australia’s infamous 2018 heatwave. Without human-caused climate change, this unique and extreme weather event would have been much more difficult to produce. Experts decided it was 10,000 times more likely due to the rise in carbon emissions.
Contributions from Major Carbon Emitters
The analysis examined both “scope 1” emissions—direct greenhouse gases emitted by a company—and “scope 3” emissions. It calculated direct emissions from fossil fuel extraction and indirect emissions produced by combustion of those fuels as well as from cement manufacturing. Our findings indicate that these 180 carbon producers are responsible for almost half of this century’s rise in heatwave intensity. Such an increase would be a dramatic jump when compared to past trends from 1850 to 1900.
Dr. Quilcaille elaborated on the significance of the findings, stating, “This study shows that these companies can cause heatwaves with their sole contribution to emissions, and this is consistent with a much larger scientific literature.” He noted, for instance, that the role of climate change in increasing the severity of heatwaves has accelerated very quickly.
The study found that of 217 heatwaves studied, 213 were made more intense by climate change. One study of heatwaves in January 2009 concluded they were 21 times more likely because of climate change. In January of 2014, that odds were increased to seven times. Among them, the December 2018 heatwave in Australia was remarkable with an incredible ten thousand times increase in probability due to climate change.
“For a quarter of these heatwaves, climate change has made them more than 10,000 times more likely to occur,” – Dr. Quilcaille
Impacts on Society and the Environment
More extreme heatwaves have deadly effects. Incredibly, they are responsible for more than just raising temperatures. These losses fuel economic losses and human casualties that are ever more attributed to climate change. Dr. Quilcaille remarked on the broader consequences of these findings: “The scientific community has been working for years now towards end-to-end attributions, linking anthropogenic actors to impacts. Not just temperatures, but economic losses, casualties.”
Jaqueline Peel, a professor with an expertise in corporate climate accountability, supported these views. She explained that if these high-stakes climate litigation cases succeed, the outcome would be transformational in changing corporate behavior on carbon. “The holy grail for this type of climate litigation is trying to find corporate liability for loss and damage caused by climate change… this research is helping fill that gap,” stated Peel.
The study features a unique joint project by scientists and legal experts finding a way to hold the world’s largest polluters accountable. Peel commented on the evolution of this field of study: “We’ve seen this area of science develop exponentially in the last few years.”
The Path Forward: Accountability and Climate Litigation
It’s perhaps not surprising that the scientific community has been leading the charge for greater transparency and accountability in emissions reporting. Therefore, the implications from this study’s findings are quickly spreading throughout legal communities. The study underscores the urgent need to link individual carbon emitters to increasingly deadly extreme weather. That connection between their harm and our investment can allow for accountability for their contribution to climate change.
Dr. Quilcaille noted that while many companies argue they are just one actor among many in the global context, the study demonstrates that their individual contributions are sufficient to trigger catastrophic weather events. “Notably, many heatwaves were so unlikely without climate change that the individual contribution of a producer can be sufficient to make this event possible,” he commented.
Peel highlighted that when large fossil fuel companies are sued, they regularly mount a staunch defense at those locations. It is difficult for plaintiffs to win these cases. Research such as this one continues to add to the body of strong evidence and makes the argument for accountability even more compelling.
“While many companies argue that they are just one actor among many, we demonstrate that their sole contribution is already enough to cause many disasters,” – Dr. Quilcaille
