Australia is already on the brink of a climate crisis. According to the National Climate Risk Assessment, by 2050 close to 1.5 million Australians may be in danger from encroaching sea levels. The report, which models impacts under three warming scenarios—1.5C, 2C, and 3C—highlights the severe threats Australia faces, including widespread declines in rainfall, extreme heat events, and catastrophic consequences for coral reefs.
The assessment highlights the need for immediate action, as many areas are already dealing with increasing vulnerabilities. As our weather becomes more extreme and climate hostile, the effects on our public health, infrastructure and our biodiversity grow ever grimmer. This report serves as a wake-up call for Australians to confront the realities of climate change.
Key Findings of the Climate Risk Assessment
The National Climate Risk Assessment paints a dire picture of Australia’s future under various climate scenarios. Impacts of sea-level rise for a range of rising temperatures in Australia. In the case of a 1.5°C scenario, ocean levels would increase by 0.14 meters. A 3°C scenario would increase that rise to 0.54 meters. The impacts of these changes hit hard at coastal communities in all states, but particularly Queensland. Yet remarkably, this state is home to 18 of the 20 most-exposed regions in the country.
Australia, too, is dealing with the effects of rising sea levels. In addition, expected decreases in precipitation in over half of the world’s major cities already threaten water security with extreme consequences. The full judgment revealed that the central and northern regions of Australia will be especially susceptible to such shifts. This vulnerability will squeeze both population health and our highly interdependent critical infrastructure, while affecting critical natural species.
In addition to injury, the risk assessment predicts dramatic future increases in heatwave-related mortality. For example, in Melbourne, forecast heatwave-related deaths would increase by as much as 259% under a 3C scenario and 60% under a 1.5C scenario. In the worst case scenario, Sydney may experience an unprecedented increase in heatwave mortality. Under a 3C scenario, those deaths might increase by more than 400%, but a 1.5C scenario still results in a doubling of deaths.
Impacts on Biodiversity and Property Values
The report shows shattering impacts on Australia’s environment. It estimates that between 40% to 70% of species will be forced to adapt or face extinction under a 3C scenario. On top of that, the entire plant vocabulary in any given zip code could be completely different from what was there in 1990.
The economic ramifications are equally concerning. According to NOAA, disaster recovery costs could skyrocket beyond $40 billion annually by 2050. Meanwhile other countries, particularly Australia, could experience a shocking $611 billion drop in property values. Alarmingly, nearly 600,000 Australians already live in communities vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. This dangerous change may start to affect these communities as soon as 2030.
“These are the government’s own numbers and they’re terrifying. It’s the kind of bedtime reading that should keep ministers up at night,” – Amanda McKenzie
The Road Ahead: Action Agenda on Climate Adaptation
In response to these alarming findings, Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change and Energy, emphasized the need for realistic discussions about the challenges ahead. He stated, “I think many Australians will find this report confronting … I would say to people, let’s be clear-eyed about the challenges, let’s be realistic about the threats, but let’s be optimistic for the future.”
Bowen addressed the urgent need for action, stating that “the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.” He admitted that despite the strongest possible immediate emissions reductions, Australia would therefore continue to experience severe impacts from climate change.
To address these challenges, an “action agenda” will be crafted in close consultation with the state governments by the end of 2026. The purpose of this agenda is to help determine priority, adaptation-focused areas of activity across Australia.
“But doing too little is an active choice, and we can choose a better future by cutting climate pollution harder and faster now,” – Amanda McKenzie
The Climate Council has described the risk assessment as a “horror story,” reflecting the gravity of the situation facing Australians if decisive measures are not taken soon.
