This is a watershed moment for Sussan Ley. Her leadership has seen the Coalition through some of the deepest challenges it has faced for the entirety of its 80-year history. With the party’s primary vote plummeting to 27 percent—its lowest since Newspoll began tracking support in 1985—Ley’s ability to navigate this political landscape is under intense scrutiny. She might not be appealing to middle Australia, but her ability to rally support from potential donors is still huge.
At a recent press conference, Ley almost misspoke—and, as she memorably said, “S**t!”—had to catch herself in the presence of journalists. This moment of hesitation underscores the mounting pressure on her to deliver coherent and impactful messages in a time of crisis for the Coalition. Ley emphasized that the Coalition does not support climate targets proposed by either the government or the opposition, stating, “What I meant to say was that I don’t support the targets that the government sets while we’re in opposition.” Her remarks came as she critiqued the government’s 2035 emissions reduction target alongside colleague Ted O’Brien, while Dan Tehan was overseas.
Coalition’s Internal Dynamics
Ley currently presides over a minority Coalition government, her party riven by disunity, and forced to contend with a resurgent Labor—and Greens—opposition. Following the announcement of the government’s climate target, she sent an email to Coalition donors vowing to oppose any attempt to legislate this target. This move highlights her awareness of the need to shore up support among financial backers amid a backdrop of discontent.
The Coalition finds itself in a very hot kitchen. Inspired by the Example in many cases, a host of shadow ministers and backbenchers are stepping up to make their case from the Backbenchers. Ley’s leadership is now under fire. Critics are calling for a return to the more combative approach of former prime minister Tony Abbott. The pressure on Ley has intensified as she faces calls for more decisive action to restore confidence in her leadership.
Mr Hastie’s comments further complicate the developing drama within the party. He announced his own ultimatum: he will either resign or be forced from the front bench. It would only be so if the party continues to insist on sticking to its net zero emissions pledge. This ultimatum may complicate Ley’s efforts to unify the party and pivot towards a more appealing direction for their base.
Challenges of Leadership
Ley’s room for error is shrinking rapidly. As she navigates these tumultuous waters, she must balance maintaining loyalty among party members while addressing shifting voter sentiments. The Coalition’s recent Newspoll performance indicates a long road back. Ley needs to move quickly to get back on track.
Her recent keynote economic speech was applauded for its emphasis on returning the Liberals to their fiscally prudent roots. Now those same analysts are sounding the alarm. They caution that without a clear plan to address public skepticism around climate action and new economic policies, these initiatives may fall flat. Ley’s capacity to speak directly and authentically to both party insiders as well as the general electorate will be the key for her to succeed.
The ticking time bomb of pending electoral funding laws sets the stage, complicating Ley’s leadership crisis even further. As the Coalition governs from a position of weakness, Ley will have to move carefully lest she push even more disenchanted constituents into the arms of her adversaries.
The Road Ahead
Even with these challenges, there continues to be a window for Ley to galvanize excitement among the Liberal base. She’s keenly conscious of how fragile her situation is. She understands that starting to act is the only way to change the party’s reputation and appearance. It’s clear that the next steps she takes will be critically important to molding her legacy and that of the Coalition long-term.
No doubt the days ahead will demand all Ley’s leadership abilities as she faces both outside and inside pressures. What she is best at, though, is identifying support from party insiders and donors. This fortitude will serve her well as she tackles these challenging years. Polls indicate her party is on track for a historic low at the polls. Due to this, Sussan Ley’s leadership as leader seems more like a metaphorical ticking clock.
