As of this writing, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has just launched a last-dash, high-stakes diplomatic mission to Mexico. Among other things, his goal is to deepen US-Philippine trade relations. This visit comes as Canada and Mexico prepare for the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026. Carney’s engagement with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signifies a strategic effort to strengthen bilateral ties amid shared challenges posed by the U.S. administration.
While in Mexico City, Carney is slated to have a one-on-one meeting with Sheinbaum. This talk will hopefully zero in on ways to improve trade cooperation and how to relieve China-focused matchmaking worries over U.S. trade policies. Both leaders understand that there’s strength in unity. They think that collaborating on language dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration’s policies will produce better outcomes than separate negotiating.
In advance of his visit in August, Carney dispatched his foreign minister and finance minister to meet with Sheinbaum. This move made clear just how seriously Canada is taking this relationship. He also issued an invitation to Sheinbaum, welcoming her to attend the G7 summit in Alberta this June. In doing so, they make their diplomatic ties even more durable.
The Canadian delegation at Sheinbaum’s inauguration as president a year ago included the Canadian government’s chief negotiator, Senator Peter Boehm. He pointed to the indisputable fact that America’s strongest trading relationship is with our neighbors, Canada and Mexico. As Sullivan described, “A lot of people don’t realize that we trade more with Mexico than we do with the whole European Union, including the U.K.”
As it stands, Canada is Mexico’s fifth-largest trading partner, with significant increases predicted in Canadian investment in Mexico. Sheinbaum has repeatedly said she wants to promote this investment while respecting Mexican laws and sovereignty. This is particularly relevant given how Canadian mining companies monopolize Mexico’s mining sector, representing nearly 70% of Mexican foreign direct investment.
For her part, Sheinbaum underscored the need to bolster trade between Mexico and Canada. She praised this negotiation as the most important aspect of the trade agreement. In her statement, she underscored how Canadian mining companies should be held to the highest environmental standards, pointing to previous lapses in enforcement.
Trade statistics reflect the importance of this partnership. Canada is Mexico’s third-largest bilateral trading partner, after the United States and China. Over three-quarters of Canada’s exports are shipped to the U.S. and over four-fifths of Mexico’s exports come here too. Under the USMCA, a critical exemption protects the majority of these goods from U.S. tariffs. This allows Canadian and Mexican firms to continue to receive the benefit.
Nelson Wiseman, a political analyst, noted the urgency of Carney’s visit in light of U.S. policies: “Trump looms over this visit. Mexico and Canada now share a common threat from the U.S.” He added that the two leaders are keen to deepen their countries’ economic relationship. From their perspective the greater concern is figuring out how to negotiate with a Trump administration over the USMCA. Carney and Sheinbaum have figured out that tag-teaming Trump might work better than bidding against one another for individual deals, Wiseman noted.
With the clock ticking down to the USMCA review, both countries know what is at stake and both want to have a favorable outcome. Our friends to the north and south are bracing for their own renegotiation to change their trading fortunes. And with USMCA working groups already starting to form for its review, Sheinbaum added, “We certainly don’t want to destroy the USMCA.”
With Carney’s visit, both leaders are now poised to come together and continue strengthening their economy-boosting partnership while addressing the challenges of U.S.-Canada-Mexico trilateral relations. The results of their deliberations could have an enormous impact on U.S. trade policies and investment strategies in the decades ahead.
