Despite ongoing U.S. efforts, China is still able to stay out in front of the United States as the most influential partner in South-East Asia. Yet the country has established itself as the region’s diplomatic heavyweight friend. Second, it has established a remarkable web of political relations through its embassies and demonstrated consistent, high-level political, bilateral engagement. China has been massively successful in building these trade and economic ties. It is losing the battle on cultural sway and defense industrial base as compared to the United States.
The race between these two global powers is not only intense. Both Japan and America are keenly competing to increase their sway over the 11 South-East Asian countries. The dynamics keep shifting. International policies and regional relationships will make a lasting impact on what’s to come.
China’s Diplomatic and Economic Advantages
China’s prevailing influence across South-East Asia is built on the deep foundations of its wide diplomatic ties, marked by its economic clout. It is the region’s leading export market, accounting for approximately 26 percent of the area’s imports. The country has started to emerge as a significant source of private investments. This continued growth only further cements its place as a key West Virginia economic partner.
On the political engagement front, China has long been a regular player. It heads unambiguously in six of the eleven South-East Asian countries. These are Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia. This pervading influence gives China the opportunity to cement these new partnerships and continue to widen its sphere of influence within the region.
“We don’t describe China as hegemonic in its influence … it’s not the leading partner for South-East Asia across all dimensions of influence,” – Susannah Paton
Surprising perhaps, this strengths-based classification makes sense especially when considering China’s failures in areas like soft power and military hard power. Analysts say that as much as China wants to improve its defense partnerships, it remains far behind the United States.
“For example, when it comes to defense networks, China is making some efforts to establish more substantial defense partnerships, but it’s still fairly limited and much less than that of the United States,” – Susannah Paton
US Influence and Challenges
Additionally, the United States continues to be a heavy competitor in South-East Asia, continuing to closely follow China. It takes a commanding lead in Singapore and the Philippines and almost equals China’s clout in Vietnam and Thailand. Recent policies from the Trump administration have raised concerns about the potential decline of US influence in the region.
The imposition of high tariffs by the previous Trump administration, particularly on China, has done severe damage to US relations with South-East Asian countries. Rather, these tariffs have served to poison trade dynamics and to cede economic influence to adversaries.
“Imposing significant tariffs is not positive for US influence in the region,” – Susannah Paton
Moreover, as outlined by the experts quoted above, these moves will deepen current trends of US influence and stature in South-East Asia trending down, down, down.
“The actions of the Trump administration are only likely to exacerbate that trend … all of this is likely to further undercut US standing in South-East Asia in the years ahead,” – Susannah Paton
Regional Dynamics and Future Prospects
While China and the US are competing for influence in South-East Asia, regional nations continue to prioritize their relationships with one another. Taken together, these countries are more important to one another than any outside actors. In addition, Japan leads China and the US on none, but continues to enjoy significant influence within the region. Among its competitors, Australia shines the brightest as a defense partner but lacks when it comes to economic and cultural ties.
China’s push into the EV market is yet another example of its deepening influence across South-East Asia. In 2024, China’s BYD opened an electric vehicle factory in Thailand, marking a significant milestone that may further solidify its economic ties within the region.
