The recent reimposition of United Nations sanctions on Iran marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This announcement comes on the heels of the decade-long nuclear deal’s collapse. That accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed initially in 2015 by Iran, the UK, Germany, France, US, Russia and China. The sanctions are expected to exacerbate tensions in an already volatile region, particularly in light of recent military actions against Iranian nuclear sites by Israel and the United States.
The UN Security Council has moved with urgency and without precedent after behind-the-scenes dialogue and diplomacy to renew the accord went cold. They have used targeted sanctions with travel bans and asset freezes to punish dozens of Iranian officials and companies. The sanctions prohibit the provision of goods and technology that Iran can use to pursue illicit nuclear-related activities. This could be taken as an indication of a coming increase in their nuclear capabilities.
Background on the Nuclear Deal
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—better known as the Iran nuclear deal—was a historic agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program. In return, it provided humanitarian exemptions from sanctions. In 2018, then-President Donald Trump’s administration withdrew the United States from the accord. This act largely soured relations between Iran and the West. Iran has always maintained that this unilateral withdrawal invalidated their own commitments under the accord.
In recent months, Iran has severely restricted inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), raising alarms among international observers about its nuclear activities. New sanctions were passed following increased concerns that Iran is getting closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran has categorically denied these charges.
“We urge Iran to refrain from any escalatory action and to return to compliance with its legally binding safeguards obligations.” – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Diplomatic Efforts and International Reactions
Similar attempts to delay the reimposition of sanctions were made by Russia and China. They even introduced a resolution to the UN Security Council to make that goal a reality. Sadly, world powers did not accept this resolution after the final round of negotiations. This rejection exposes their continued rift on how to contain Iran’s nuclear program. In response to the most recent sanctions, France’s, the U.K.’s, and Germany’s foreign ministers issued a joint rebuke. They are calling on Iran and all countries to respect the spirit and letter of the current UN resolutions.
“Our countries will continue to pursue diplomatic routes and negotiations,” – Foreign ministers of France, the UK and Germany
While these sanctions have indeed tightened the screws on Iran, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed that a path to diplomacy is still open. He reiterated that a fresh deal could offer the optimal result for the Iranian people and international stability.
“For that to happen, Iran must accept direct talks, held in good faith, without stalling or obfuscation,” – Marco Rubio
Future Outlook and Regional Implications
With tensions rapidly escalating after the reinstatement of sanctions, Iran’s leadership seems increasingly unprepared to consider further negotiations. The prospect for immediate diplomacy was further complicated after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made clear he has no interest in engaging the United States. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded with high spirits, promising that Iran would continue its active involvement in the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This is great news, especially as pressures are ramping up.
In the next few months, we will begin to see the effect of these sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. They will further probably redefine Iran’s ties with great regional powers. With Israel and the US adopting a more aggressive stance towards Iranian nuclear sites in recent months, any miscalculation could lead to military confrontation.
