All the while, Beijing is significantly increasing the PLA Navy’s overall shipbuilding capabilities as it prepares to build over 70 ships over the next five years. A recent U.S. intelligence assessment made public, produced by officers of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for the Pentagon. This report explains how these vessels are explicitly designed for deploying troops and vehicles onto contested beaches, posing alarming threats to U.S. military planners. More notable than possible new varieties is the extent to which China has adapted its civilian ferry fleet for the expressly amphibious role. This change is a serious blow to regional stability, particularly with respect to Taiwan.
Similarly, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has been raising the alarm for quite a while over China’s expanding naval capabilities. Additionally, observers have noticed that China’s new ferries have featured in propaganda videos revealing the military’s might, to further signal their dual-use nature. The construction of additional landing docks at China’s COMEC Shipyard underscores the country’s commitment to bolstering its amphibious assault capabilities.
Growing Military Capabilities
China’s civilian ferry fleet has become a key factor in its military strategy. It proves even more critical when looking at safeguard operations for any future contingencies involving Taiwan. The report reveals that China is building 76 ferries for its own use, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the nation’s entire commercial ferry production output over the next three years. Many of these ferries are similar in scale to our own Spirit of Tasmania, at around 200 meters in length.
2019 marked the first time the military demonstrated the use of ferries during large-scale exercises. The participation of the 15,000-ton vessel Bang Chui Dao in an amphibious landing practice is a considerable improvement. This represented a significant new departure in the use of civilian vessels in military operations. It did reveal China’s desire to improve its amphibious capabilities.
“China is undoubtedly building capabilities consistent with preparing for an invasion of Taiwan.” – James Corera
China’s efforts to expand its fleet are not merely symbolic but reflect a broader strategy aimed at ensuring readiness for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. intelligence assessment goes on to emphasize that each new capability connects directly to a possible future situation in Taiwan. This revelation demands a more strategic approach to military readiness.
Strategic Implications
The broader implications of China’s growing ferry fleet go beyond the short-term military uses. The U.S. military planners face a big strategic challenge in the U.S. ro-ro (roll-on/roll-off) ferry fleet. That makes their operational math in the area far more challenging. The creation of landing docks has visual appeal. At the same time, it raises questions over their vulnerability and combat effectiveness in real world scenarios.
“Landing docks look impressive in pictures, but they’re vulnerable, limited, and only useful once China has already made significant progress ashore.” – James Corera
The U.S. military’s assessment indicates that China’s naval enhancements serve as a means to counteract perceived threats from the United States. Peking University Professor Hu Bo’s view is that China’s navy is stacking up to be very powerful. He thinks this trend is chiefly reacting to the U.S. military’s footprint and aggressive maneuvering in the region.
“I think the main reason China is strengthening its navy is very simple. It’s because of the U.S. military threat.” – Professor Hu Bo
As tensions persist and begin to boil, these moves present worthy and urgent concerns about the distribution of power in the Indo-Pacific. The capacity for Chinese ferries to sustain military operations will change the outcome of any fight over Taiwan, if we get into one in the first place.
International Concerns
These developments have the entire international community watching closely. A senior Australian government source has confirmed that Australia has reviewed the U.S. intelligence report, indicating a shared concern regarding China’s maritime ambitions. The paper highlights the increasing agreement among our allied countries that more must be done to address China’s changing military strengths.
Retired Professor Hu Bo warns against jumping to conclusions about China’s purpose, arguing that preparation is not the same thing as an imminent invasion. He further argues that China should be strategic, stay patient and wait for the right moment to respond, if at all.
“Preparation is not the same as intention.” – Professor Hu Bo
In truth, despite all their reassurances on this issue, China’s military buildup presents probably the greatest immediate threat to regional stability. The potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait is at a historic high. Each side is on a war footing, militarizing while trying to avert war.
