Donald Trump just announced victory for an amazing achievement. His administration has already helped the United States win a once-in-a-generation $17 trillion in new investments! This figure, he asserts, is a result of tariffs, income tax cuts, and engagement with CEOs, financiers, and global leaders. Now, economists and analysts are sounding alarms about the validity of this assertion. Other researchers suggest that the true figure is much, much lower and possibly overstated.
In a speech delivered last month, Trump stated, “Under eight months of Trump, we’ve already secured commitments of $17 trillion coming in.” He emphasized the unprecedented nature of these commitments, declaring, “There’s never been any country that’s done anything like that.” This announcement is a drop from a recent high of 56% against his first term in early 2020.
The details of these purported investments are still shrouded in mystery. To date, they haven’t been fully documented or made public. In addition to the eye-popping commitments, the United Arab Emirates said they would commit $1.4 trillion over ten years and Qatar said they would commit $1.2 trillion. Saudi Arabia has committed to invest $600 billion, while India pledges to invest $500 billion. Plus, South Korea has promised $450 billion. European companies have firm plans or stated plans of $600 billion through 2029.
There’s good reason to be skeptical of the claims Trump and his administration have been making. Many experts argue that some of the figures presented might involve double-counting or rely on investments originally announced during the Biden administration. Fears over “fuzzy math” have been voiced, particularly when it comes to Qatar’s investment. This investment exceeds more than five times the annual gross domestic product of the District of Columbia alone, which should alarm everyone.
Market monetarists such as the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen, who formerly ran the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, are raising the alarm. They challenge the legality of Trump’s assertions. As Posen noted, it’s not just the dollar figures that are up by leaps and bounds—so is Trump’s public commitments. Nevertheless, he stressed that these commitments add up to hundreds of billions, not trillions. He further cautioned that such actions could have broader implications for U.S. foreign relations: “It is a national security mistake because you’re turning allies into colonies of a sort — you’re forcibly extracting from them things that they don’t see as entirely in their interest.”
In addition to foreign commitments, the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced $70 billion in investments in the U.S., following a three-year grace period on tariffs. It’s worth mentioning that more than $13 billion of this investment was initially announced during the Biden administration. It was boosted by the $1.6 billion in grant funding made available through the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act.
These egregious figures are spreading like wildfire through the media and political discourse. The opacity that surrounds them all but calls into question their very legitimacy. The ongoing debate highlights the challenge of accurately assessing economic claims made by political figures, especially in an era where investment announcements can be influenced by various factors beyond mere policy changes.
