New tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports of assembled furniture and softwood lumber took effect October 14, 2025. This impacts furniture and lumber imports with a surprise 25% tariff. In addition, they impose an additional 10% import duty on timber and lumber products. Vietnamese products will be hit with a 20% tariff, while Chinese imports will be subject to a 30% tariff. These new measures are the latest in a series of steps taken to redefine our trade relationships and strengthen domestic production.
According to an analysis by investment bank Goldman Sachs, US consumers will end up paying the burden tariff costs. By the end of 2025, they’ll cover just over 55% of these costs. It’s American businesses that will cover the vast majority of the bill—about 22%—to only about 18% for foreign exporters. Around 5% of the expenditures are expected to be avoided through fraud, abuse, and other leakage, making enforcement even more important. Most significantly, consumers could find themselves paying for as much as 70% of these expenses by the end of next year.
In recent months, the effect of these tariffs has already started to take shape throughout the industry. Retail furniture prices soared 1.4% in the three months ending June 2025. On the whole, they’re up 4.7% since August 2022. Some specific categories have had even narrower and sharper increases, including living room and dining room furniture, which have shot up 9.5%.
Vietnam and China have emerged as dominant forces in the US furniture market, comprising almost 60% of all inbound shipments. Thousands more American manufacturers would experience an increase in demand for their domestically produced products. This new wave is being fueled by the price advantages formed by these new tariffs.
“These factories are the most likely to see increased demand for their domestically-produced products because imported upholstered furniture that was previously in the same price range now will be subject to the new tariffs,” – American Home Furnishings Alliance.
The short-term effects of these tariffs seem to be most severely experienced by US companies. Now they’re expected to shoulder a larger share of expenses. Along with suppliers, passing on higher costs to consumers may be the easiest part.
“At the moment, however, U.S. businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs because some tariffs have just gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers,” – Kush Desai.
Experts hope that American consumers will go through a glancing transition period while the market responds to these tariffs. There is still an underlying assumption that in the end, the cost will be passed back to foreign exporters.
“Americans may face a transition period from tariffs,” but insisted “the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters,” – Kush Desai.
In light of these ever-changing realities, firms are already anticipating and taking steps to fundamentally reshape their supply chains. A growing number of companies are re-evaluating their supply chains, such as onshoring production to strengthen our domestic manufacturing base.
“Companies are already shifting and diversifying their supply chains in response to tariffs, including by onshoring production to the United States,” – Kush Desai.
The Biden administration has committed to addressing economic challenges associated with inflation while focusing on long-term strategies for restoring American manufacturing strength.
“Americans can rest assured that the Administration will continue to deliver economic relief from Joe Biden’s inflation crisis while laying the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness,” – Kush Desai.
