Barnaby Joyce, a New England veteran and at one time deputy PM, remains a big political beast inside the National Party. Yet his repeated scandals have not lessened his power. Now at 58 years old, he has carefully built up a socially conservative, anti-establishment persona which has undeniably connected him with the voters well. A bitter public spat with his party compatriot in the House, David Littleproud, has raised questions about Joyce’s political future. He’s privately signaled that this will be his last term. He has not ruled out a definite switch to One Nation, a move that would seriously shake the National Party’s confidence.
Joyce’s relationship with Littleproud has long been fraught since his pyrrhic victory in 2016. During this recent election campaign, Joyce took Littleproud to town. In the process, he alleged, Littleproud shoved him off to the sidelines, forcing him to the very back of the party’s bench. Joyce was incensed at being ousted from the frontbench. As of today, he is now banished to a remote corner of the backbench wilderness in Parliament.
Sidelined by Leadership
Joyce’s surprise removal from the frontbench is an extraordinary deterioration of his political fortunes. In opposition, he has been the most vocal opponent of Labor’s emissions trading scheme. As Politico suggests, he began adopting this approach over the years of the Gillard government. His political agenda has consistently been defined by the courage to go against his party—an all too often generic Democratic party establishment line.
As bleak as his fortunes may be, Joyce himself is adamant he’s not prepared to slip away quietly without a fight. In his time as leader, he has proven to be a fierce advocate for his constituents in the National Party. He’s still determined to do right by conservatives. He can’t escape the fact that his relationship with Littleproud has been irretrievably broken.
“It has unfortunately, like a sadness in some marriages, irreparably broken down.” – Barnaby Joyce
Joyce’s comments are indicative of more than just his sentiments. His frustrations have forced a realignment of allegiances that will likely shift the underlying coalitions of the parties in the long run.
A Potential Shift to One Nation
Rumours abound about Joyce’s imminent defection to One Nation. Political analysts have been sounding alarms that this change would pose a greater risk to the National Party than any rebellious delegation. At the same time, polls suggest that One Nation is continuing to grow and bite further into the Coalition vote. Should Joyce choose to join this new cosmopolitan party on the rise, as an example, it would be the harbinger of a future earthquake in Australia’s conservative political landscape.
Joyce would bring a wealth of experience, and is known for strong conservative credentials. If he were to decide to lead One Nation in the upper house, he may even be able to succeed Pauline Hanson. Such a move would not only bolster One Nation’s influence but diminish the National Party’s standing among its traditional voter base.
Joyce’s colleagues say he’s always been honest with them about his frustration and disappointment with the current administration’s governance style. He, too, has raised scepticism about staying in a Littleproud-led Nationals. His continuing attacks on Littleproud appear to reflect personal bitterness and fears about where the party might be headed.
Implications for the National Party
The threat of Barnaby Joyce joining One Nation shows a deeper divide within the conservative camp. The National Party faces increasing pressure as it grapples with internal dissent and external competition from parties like One Nation. Joyce’s possible exit would cause even more splintering, making the task of rallying all the conservative voters together much harder before hotly contested primary elections in May.
All signs are pointing to Joyce not taking a backbench passive role lying down. His potential departure from the National Party is a huge test for Littleproud and his leadership team. According to various recent polling, One Nation is on the move. This new development has created immediate optics for the Nationals and their Joyce question – would he fall in lock step with the party.
