Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese congratulated former U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday. This two-day visit has the potential to do more than any other over the next couple of years to shape the future of Australia-US ties and the AUKUS partnership. Joined by Resources Minister Madeleine King and Industry Minister Tim Ayres, Albanese aims to solidify proposals for a reliable supply of critical minerals to the United States. This meeting takes place at a crucial moment when China’s stranglehold on the critical minerals sector is emerging as a real vulnerability for both countries.
Albanese’s visit follows a series of four phone calls between him and Trump since the latter’s re-election last November, as well as a brief encounter at the UN General Assembly last month. The Australian Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of establishing an individual rapport with Trump. This is particularly important given the complexities and uncertainties from their countries’ historic bilateral relationship over trade tariffs and climate policies.
The Importance of Critical Minerals
Australia is the largest producer of critical minerals and rare earths, which serve as key inputs in a wide range of advanced technologies and industrial processes. The realization is dawning and the race is on, including here in the United States, to reduce dependence on China. Against the background of these efforts, critical mineral resources are becoming essential, especially considering that China today controls the entire supply chain.
During his visit, Albanese plans to present proposals aimed at securing a stable supply of these minerals to address America’s vulnerabilities. This decision furthers Trump’s agenda to obtain a more stable, domestic supply of critical minerals. It’s indicative of a personal connection – or mutual obsession – between the two leaders.
Unfortunately, Albanese may have an uphill battle since Australia doesn’t have the capital to refine these minerals at home. The Prime Minister is playing a high-stakes game of chicken. Success in these negotiations would mean more collaboration and the possibility of investments to expand processing capacity here in Australia.
“If [Albanese] is just coming with baubles and trinkets, it won’t wash with Trump,” – Joe Hockey
Albanese’s ability to present concrete plans rather than superficial gestures will be crucial in garnering Trump’s respect and attention during their discussions.
AUKUS and Future Cooperation
The meeting provides Albanese a timely opportunity to deepen Australia’s strategic embrace of the AUKUS alliance. This issue has generated intense criticism and controversy down under and across the pond. Arthur Sinodinos, former Australian ambassador to the United States, heightened the importance of that in-person meeting. He insisted that it’s critical for Albanese to be able to “eyeball the president” on the future of AUKUS.
Albanese now has a unique opportunity to act. He could suggest accelerating an $1 billion Australia holds as a trust fund and owe to the U.S. by the end of this year. This payment lays the groundwork for the larger AUKUS deal. Moreover, it extends Australia-UK-US trilateral defense cooperation.
“It’s important for the two leaders to establish a personal rapport and understanding, and a clearer definition of our common interest,” – Arthur Sinodinos
These discussions around AUKUS are especially timely considering Trump’s repeated demands that our allied countries spend more on their militaries. Foreign policy expert Charles Edel warned that the stakes of this meeting were unprecedented. Secondly, it provides Albanese the opportunity to make his case directly to Trump himself, who up till now has remained curiously silent on AUKUS.
Navigating Diplomatic Waters
Albanese prepares for his meetings with Trump. He must sort out their history of bad blood, all the while fostering a spirit of collaboration. The prime minister’s approach will have a lasting impact on how these two leaders interact during this consequential initial meeting.
“Trump enjoys a bit of humour … he’ll respect you for being strong and respectful,” – Joe Hockey
Albanese’s diplomatic strategy should strike a balance between asserting Australia’s interests and demonstrating respect for Trump’s leadership style. As Joe Hockey once counselled, it is important that Albanese not come across as the obsequious lackey or the bitter foe.
