Myanmar’s junta has called a multiphase election to begin on December 28. It’s a move that has been met with skepticism from international watchdogs. Perhaps as many have put it, this political sleight of hand is a clumsy effort to clothe an otherwise illegitimate regime with legitimacy. Yet the announcement came in the wake of continuing turmoil across the nation. Citizens are immensely worried about human rights abuses since the military coup carried out by Min Aung Hlaing in February 2021.
This election announcement has raised eyebrows at the ongoing ASEAN summit, where leaders are grappling with their response to Myanmar’s situation. In response, ASEAN penned a Five-Point Consensus to call for the cessation of violence and the commencement of dialogue with opposing political entities. Whether or not this plan would actually be effective is another question. With China and Russia deepening their relations, the two are offering important military backing to the junta.
Political Landscape and International Response
Critics have said that the rankings would serve as a smokescreen. They think this will prevent a clear path to international respectability for General Min Aung Hlaing’s regime. William J. Jones, an East Asia regional analyst, noted the absence of agreement – even within ASEAN – on a coordinated response to Myanmar. He stated, “There’s a lack of unity, a lack of consensus and a lack of understanding around what should they actually do towards Myanmar.”
The European Union is now taking a lead in the crisis. We have a chance here, and we need EU Commissioner Kajsa Ollongren to continue pushing EU’s neighbors, particularly those in ASEAN, to be more forceful. She expressed concern that “as long as Myanmar is unstable, as long as it’s sort of a source of instability for the whole region, it should be the number one concern… for the ASEAN countries.”
Despite these calls for action, Myanmar’s military seems to be getting the message. And despite a staggering death toll—estimated over 1,700 civilians by early September—General Min Aung Hlaing’s administration has demonstrated no desire to retreat. Koko Chit, a resident of Myanmar, remarked, “There will be more fighting. I believe that (General) Min Aung Hlaing will not back down easily since he has already seized the country.”
The Human Cost of Instability
The current crisis in Myanmar has led to widespread and grave humanitarian impacts. Daily life is a dangerous reality from an increase in shootings on school campuses to mass chaos in the streets. Koko Chit described the situation starkly: “There’s no security there. When you go to work, there’s fighting.” Among the military’s measures are conscripting workers and using scare tactics to quash opposition.
In the midst of this turmoil, many residents have been forced to turn to extreme actions just to get by. One man returned to northern Myanmar to scavenge for jade at Hpakant’s notorious mines, highlighting the lengths individuals will go to amid economic hardship exacerbated by political instability.
The junta’s increasing dependence on international backers is most visible in its growing ties with China and Russia. Both countries are key to the provision of arms and economic support that keeps the military able to pursue its violent repression of opponents. Unfortunately, this external support may complicate the international community’s efforts to apply pressure for change inside Myanmar.
ASEAN’s Dilemma
The ASEAN summit faces a critical dilemma. The organization has long adhered to a policy of non-interference in member states’ affairs. What’s happening in Myanmar presents a particularly difficult challenge. Though the leaders made their Five-Point Plan, the plan’s implementation is still far from sight. In 1991, William J. Jones examined ASEAN’s internal dynamics. He further assured everyone, “I don’t think ASEAN and its elites have any problem with alternate forms of governance or authoritarianism in general.”
As regional leaders deliberate on how best to address Myanmar’s escalating crisis, Malaysia has stepped up its engagement, attempting to play an active role in resolving the conflict. Yet, the collective impact of ASEAN’s initiatives remains up for debate.
Countries around the world are observing Myanmar closely, anxious to see whether ASEAN will take decisive action or remain passive as the country descends further into chaos. The current conflict is a stark reminder of the challenges that regional cooperation in crisis can face.
