In a major departure from US policy, former US President Donald Trump backed South Korea’s appeal. He welcomed their longstanding wish to obtain nuclear-powered submarine technology. This announcement made during a speech at the New Hampshire statehouse last month is in contrast to the deeply unfamiliar approach of the Biden administration. Australia is watching these moves with great interest. Particularly whether they will be a liability towards the AUKUS security pact with the United States and the United Kingdom.
Trump’s support for South Korea going nuclear seems to undercut assurances given by former US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Austin pointed to the difficulty in assisting South Korea to develop its own submarine capacities. Simultaneously, he needs to uphold the U.S.’s significant AUKUS obligations. Trump’s announcement came despite these warnings, raising concerns about how this initiative might impact Australia’s plans to acquire Virginia-class submarines by the 2030s.
Australian officials are especially sensitive to the consequences of Trump’s action. First, as we’ve stated repeatedly, AUKUS will only succeed if the US increases its submarine production by a rather substantial margin. Unfortunately, this plan might be at risk if resources are diverted to help South Korea.
South Korea’s Submarine Ambitions
The plan involves constructing submarines in the US port city of Philadelphia, following South Korean conglomerate Hanwha’s purchase of local shipyards for $100 million late last year. As it pursues the acquisition, Hanwha has already committed to investing billions into modernizing the facility and improving its shipbuilding capacity. This initiative marks a pivotal change in attitude for South Korea, as it looks to strengthen its own military might.
Here’s why naval analyst Jennifer Parker was skeptical about the new announcement and the feasibility of South Korea’s planned nuclear submarine program. She stated that the agreement is still in its early stages and that she is “not confident that it will end up with South Korea operating nuclear-powered submarines.” The agreement includes critical technological transfers that shall be sent for approval to the US Congress. This adds yet another layer of confusion to a very complicated issue.
“Shipbuilding in our Country will soon be making a BIG COMEBACK. Stay tuned!” – Donald Trump
Asia defense policy analyst Euan Graham offered another critical suggestion. He explained that regardless of where actual construction were to happen, South Korea would probably need to bear the full cost of its own program. He further added that the costs/risks of undermining the AUKUS submarine project seem low at this point.
AUKUS Under Scrutiny
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been quite loud in reiterating support for AUKUS as a development counter to these emerging events. He made it clear that as the United States and South Korea work through their own bilateral relationships, Australia’s interests come first. Albanese confidently assured Australians that whatever mischief Trump might get up to wouldn’t put AUKUS at risk.
“They have been clear ever since President Trump has made very explicit his — not just support for AUKUS — but indeed the bringing forward of the timetable if that is possible,” said Albanese.
Analysts like Jennifer Parker caution that while AUKUS should not face immediate dangers, complications may arise concerning US staffing capacities needed to support Australia’s submarine ambitions.
“From the Australian standpoint, it may complicate our plans by reducing US staff capacity to support the establishment of AUKUS from a teaching or regulatory capacity,” Parker warned.
Broader Implications for Regional Security
Concerns Trump’s announcement affect more than just short-term military readiness. The strategic landscape in East Asia is evolving, with increased concerns over China’s military assertiveness and North Korea’s nuclear program.
Underscoring this point, senior defense official Mike Pezzullo noted that previous administrations were reluctant to move forward for fear of proliferation concerns. These issues focused on South Korea receiving increased access to sensitive nuclear materials. He noted a shift under Trump’s leadership towards prioritizing integrated deterrence against perceived threats from China and North Korea.
“Whereas previous administrations might have been more concerned about the proliferation risks associated with South Korea having greater access to nuclear materials, this administration is clearly prioritising integrated deterrence of China and North Korea,” Pezzullo articulated.
He remarked that having South Korean capital and technical expertise integrated into the submarine industrial base could benefit AUKUS.
“Whether or not its proposed nuclear submarine construction program is to be formally affiliated with AUKUS, having South Korean capital and technical expertise injected into the submarine industrial base will only benefit AUKUS,” Pezzullo added.
Allies and adversaries alike will be watching these moves very carefully. They are keen to understand how this announcement will shape regional security dynamics, as well as invigorate or change existing international defense collaborations.
