Though the war is now well into its second year, Vladimir Putin’s aims haven’t changed much since the beginning of the war. He wants to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty. His paramount aim is to install a pro-Moscow administration, even if he can’t conquer the whole of the country. This has heightened the urgency for unity and European solidarity in support of Ukraine as Russia’s shadow appears to loom larger.
Putin’s intentions extend beyond mere territorial control. He wants to squash any pretense of Ukrainian sovereignty and independence in foreign policy decisions. In doing so, he sends a signal to Europe that he is still undeterred by its rules-based orders and diplomatic conventions. The Russian leader’s lack of interest in any post-war settlement adds another layer of complexity. He certainly appears intent on doing so.
The Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk
According to new accounts, Russian troops have taken over much of Pokrovsk. This city is important to Ukraine’s road and rail network, including in the Donetsk region. By acting as a key logistical hub, Pokrovsk directly facilitates the movement of troops and supplies, thus making it critical to operations. Its strategic importance has grown even more as the war drags on, underscoring the strategic stakes at play.
Beyond the crucial military utility of Pokrovsk’s control, taking Pokrovsk reflects on the wider novelty and growth of Putin’s military hand in eastern Ukraine. Many analysts have indicated that securing control over this city could allow for further advances deep into the Donetsk region. As the contests rage on, Ukraine faces pressure to continue protecting its territory as well as the need to secure further assistance from around the globe.
European Political Dynamics
While tied up in the Ukraine counteroffensive, European leaders are facing their own political test. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has taken a controversial stance, seeking alliances with Czechia and Slovakia while continuing to purchase Russian oil. His repeated refusal to back EU financial assistance to Ukraine is a direct challenge to the idea that Hungary shares any commitment to European solidarity and responsibility.
Orban’s actions have further been seen as cynical attempts to weaken European solidarity to help Ukraine. He has personally blocked Ukraine’s attempts to join the EU. Not only would this be an ill-advised budget maneuver, it would fundamentally undermine the nation’s sovereignty and blight its stability. There is no doubt as Europe contemplates these internal divisions that the need for a unified response has never been more urgent.
The perils of Emmanuel Macron’s leadership is on trial in this context. Even before he took office, one of Biden’s priorities was to re-assess Europe’s approach to foreign affairs and defense. It was against this backdrop that, during an extraordinary speech at the Sorbonne in Paris, Macron first laid his vision for Europe’s future. He even called for strategic economic decoupling from the United States.
“I’m wary of [those kinds of] terms,” – Emmanuel Macron
In light of these developments, the question remains: how can Europe effectively counter Putin’s ambitions while maintaining internal cohesion?
The Historical Perspective on Putin’s Strategy
As historian Anne Applebaum explains, this is because Putin is, as always, the consummate tactician. In her analysis, her predictions—he thinks he can outlast the United States and Europe. She contends that “Putin is merely biding his time until Trump loses interest and moves on to other pursuits.” Instead, it indicates to us that he views the historical geopolitical moment as an opportunity to deepen his own agenda.
Applebaum elaborates, stating, “I assume that he’s thinking he can wait out the US, he can wait out Europe, and if he just sticks to his guns, he’ll win the war. I think that’s his logic.” This view, pessimistic as it may be, serves to highlight the continued need for watchfulness and leadership from Western leaders in defending against Russia’s renewed aggression.
While some European leaders have attempted to devise strategies for resilience against Putin’s tactics, others appear less committed to a unified front. This patchwork nature of the response will only embolden Russia as it carries out its crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
