What role climate change is playing and how vulnerable the country is can’t be understated, particularly in Northern Australia. Back in Australia, climate change is causing sea level rise to inundate important wetlands in the Northern Territory. The boldest forecast comes from the country’s national research agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). By the year 2100, global mean sea level is predicted to increase by 0.84 m. Movement north is a worrying trend for Northern Australia. Sea levels are rising three times faster here than the rest of the country.
As with many climate-related changes, the region’s unique geography contributes heavily to the intensity of these impacts. Northern Australia is home to some of the largest tidal ranges in the world. Tidal ranges here are extreme. Tides can go as high as 8 meters, compared to a 2 meter height in other areas such as New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania. As of writing, the tide in the Northern Territory is 6 meters, 2 meters still below its peak.
The Impact of Rising Sea Levels
Moving saltwater into environments that have no defense against it results in widespread and long-term destruction. The saltwater is eroding low-lying freshwater wetlands, especially in Kakadu National Park. Indeed, reports indicate that salt water has penetrated much farther inland. The swamp has accumulated so much salt that paperbark trees are now dying like canaries along the East Alligator River’s creeks.
Dr Jaci Brown is a climate impacts research leader at CSIRO. She points out that salt can be deadly to freshwater species – a sobering thought considering the already sobering impacts on biodiversity. She notes that “where the floodwater reaches, that’s an indication of where the ocean will reach in the future.” The modeling conducted by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that within 36 years, almost half of the wetlands in the Northern Territory will be inundated with saltwater.
In his biting critique, Dr. Brown lays out a dire outlook for the future of Kakadu. By 2132, he is forecasting that all of the region’s brackish—slightly salty—freshwater wetlands will convert to saltwater habitats. This new trend is a truly dangerous shift for wildlife. It in turn puts at risk the scientists and local communities who rely on these unique and valuable wetlands for their livelihoods.
Community Perspectives
No one has seen the toll that climate change has taken more than the local residents themselves. Jonathan Nadji, a life-long resident of the area, says he’s horrified by how much their landscape has changed. “Every year I get to see the floodplains turn into an inland sea, and unfortunately other people don’t get to see that,” he states.
Jonathan also attempts to convey the urgency of the situation, especially because nature has a strong tendency to recreate landscapes by force. “Nature has a way of destroying anything that’s in its way, and we underestimate its power,” he adds. He reiterates the urgency of this crisis, underlining the importance of local communities coming to terms with this issue. “What are they going to do then? You can’t house people in waist-deep water,” he questions.
The effects are equally eco- as well as socio-logical. The resultant loss of wetland area would displace communities and destroy cultural heritage sites for Indigenous communities. Jonathan highlights that “nature’s already left a mark there for all to see, and to me that’s a warning.”
Future Projections and Adaptation Strategies
The impacts of climate change on Northern Australia’s wetlands go beyond direct ecological destruction. Predictions indicate that within 75 years, approximately 78 percent of the wetlands will be lost due to rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion.
In order to prevent the situation from worsening, Dr. Brown is calling for more proactive measures. “We need to be taking this very seriously,” she urges. She points out that “sea level rise isn’t a destination, but a journey we’re already on.” The need for innovative adaptation strategies These communities find themselves on the front lines of the irreversible, real-world impacts of a rapidly changing climate.
Conversations around how we do and should adapt to these changes are already underway. Local authorities and environmental activists should collaborate with Indigenous communities to discover the best solutions together. Ideally, the target is to preventatively take action to avoid creating or increasing harm. Ultimately, we hope to identify these strategies to enable these communities to be success stories, even when climate change presents serious challenges.
