Sanae Takaichi’s ascendance marks history as Japan’s first female Prime Minister. As the widely accepted conservative torchbearer, she convincingly brought the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a massive electoral victory on July 10, 2022, in parliamentary elections. That election was held on Sunday. On the surface, the LDP had a stunning success, dominating Japan’s lower house of parliament with 328 seats of 465. Takaichi’s victory is a major coup for her career. At 64 years old, she takes inspiration from the late Thatcher—who was known as the “Iron Lady” long before Trump appropriated the phrase.
That historic win all but guarantees that Takaichi will remain a powerful political force. With her electoral mandate underpinned by these victories, she can afford to go big with ambitions to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities. Her mandate comes at a particularly needed time. China’s growing assertiveness toward Taiwan and wider geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific cast a shadow over the region. Specifically, Takaichi’s administration has committed to some bold moves that would, I believe, draw the ire of Beijing. That’s particularly true given her recent comments that seem to align her with Japan’s growing interest in militarily intervening if China attacks Taiwan.
A Shift in Political Landscape
With his highly competent leadership, Takaichi Sanae has breathed new life into an LDP that struggled in irony and underperformed in recent elections. By making great strides in reaching out to younger voters, she was able to save her party’s fortunes. According to political analyst Kazushige Cho, “It feels like she’s creating a sense of direction — like the whole country is pulling together and moving forward.” This sentiment is indicative of a strong yearning among the Japanese electorate for strong, functional leadership and a clear vision Japan’s future.
The Prime Minister’s plans extend beyond defense. She also intends to advance talks on reducing the sales tax more quickly. All of this time, she has stood by her commitment to achieving fiscal sustainability. Even her proposals have not been devoid of critique. Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets pointed out the lack of clarity about her consumption tax cuts. Her plans for the cut pose serious questions about how it will be funded and how she’ll be able to make the math work.
Though facing an uphill battle, Takaichi has begun her work, demonstrating her dedication to defending and protecting Japan from the most critical issues. We’re counting on the public’s support to help. Now, we need to deal with these matters just as passionately. This, she said, is proof of her unwillingness to rest or waver in fulfilling the commitments she’s made.
The Geopolitical Implications
Takaichi’s election victory comes with significant implications for Japan’s foreign policy, particularly regarding its stance towards China and Taiwan. Her remarks on how to best respond to Chinese aggression have sparked immediate and intense condemnation from Beijing. This created the perfect storm for one of the largest corporate disputes we’ve witnessed in more than a decade. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te welcomed Takaichi’s ascendance to the top post. He thinks the move could lay the groundwork for a more prosperous and secure future for Japan and its regional allies.
If she becomes Prime Minister, Takaichi will surely come under greater fire as to how she balances this messy web of international relations. And analysts have noted that her overwhelming mandate might further strengthen her hand on defense, too. This move would do nothing but aggravate Japan’s relations with China even more. Her administration would be more willing to take an aggressive posture when it comes to national security, in addition to moves to improve the military’s capabilities.
Support from International Allies
Takaichi has enjoyed international support as well, most prominently from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently voiced his endorsement for her leadership. Trump announced plans to host Takaichi at the White House next month, signaling strong bilateral ties and potential collaboration on various issues. This endorsement adds to her global stature as she assumes her new role.
Japan’s economy has reached a crossroads, says economist Yoshinobu Tsutsui. Takaichi’s administration will need to reorder priorities to achieve sustainable growth to meet these challenges head-on. Not pursuing meaningful economic reforms while simultaneously pursuing a vigorous defense policy would be an equally challenging and daunting pitfall that she must avoid.
