China’s C919 jet, produced by the government-owned manufacturer COMAC, marked its first commercial flight in 2023. This milestone happened during an escalating period of trade tensions with the United States. The C919 is intended to challenge industry heavyweights Boeing and Airbus. It hopes to position itself as a heavyweight contender on the world stage of commercial aviation. China is expected to require 9,570 new passenger aircraft from 2025-2044. That’s why the success of the C919 is so important, considering that more than 80% of these new aircraft will be single-aisle jets.
The C919’s global production depends on a wide supply chain. It tracks 48 first tier suppliers from the United States, including GE, Honeywell, and Collins. The plane is powered by U.S.-built LEAP-1C engines. This drastic shift in sourcing has opened new vulnerabilities in its supply chain undercut by global geopolitical dynamics. In mid-May, the U.S. suspended all export licenses for these engines, throwing a wrench into COMAC’s production schedule. While the issuance of export licenses was restarted in July, the trade friction still poses risks for the C919 program.
“COMAC faces significant risk from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the U.S. and China,” stated Max J. Zenglein, Asia-Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board think tank. This strong sentiment further highlights how critical stable international relations are to the success of the C919.
Despite all of these challenges, many airlines outside of China have shown interest in bringing the C919 into service. Most significantly, AirAsia is one of those that have expressed their intention to introduce the aircraft into their fleets. Yet the C919 does not yet have international certification, restricting operations primarily to domestic routes within China. This costly certification barrier effectively limits its market potential.
India is in the race, as it works to develop its own engine alternative, the CJ-1000A. So far it hasn’t been adopted into the C919 program. Until then, depending on Western suppliers for specialized and critical components is still a mighty sore spot. Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA, noted that “engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC’s control.”
China’s three largest state-owned airlines—Air China, China Eastern and China Southern—are on orders for a combined total of about 20 of the C919. These airlines are a key part of flushing out the aircraft capabilities and proving the reliability and competitive market place. Yet, without international certification and a solid global support network, the C919 may struggle to gain traction outside its home country.
Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, emphasized three critical factors that will determine the C919’s success: “needs to have each one of three things: good economics, a prompt global product support network, and certification from safety agencies.” He further elaborated that “any one of these three alone doesn’t mean much,” highlighting the interconnected nature of these requirements for achieving a foothold in international markets.
Ultimately, COMAC has some tricky waters to chart. Rising trade tensions between Washington and Beijing now jeopardize not only production schedules, but delivery timelines for the C919 program as well. The ever-shifting geopolitical environment is a double-edged sword, functioning as both a hurdle and an accelerant for transformation in China’s aviation industry.
“Existing choke points are being exploited in the deal making process between governments,” Zenglein noted. That underscores how international relations – even what may seem like diplomatic tenor – can immediately affect business activities and supply chain relationships.
