With the advent of autonomous driving technology, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is taking automotive innovation to an entirely new level. He’s made some pretty audacious claims as to when driverless “robotaxis” will be running as well. This announcement marks the third major attempt—from Elon Musk at least—to bounce back in the wake of overly ambitious past forecasts. Initially claiming in 2019 that these autonomous vehicles would be on the road “next year,” Musk now asserts that an improved version of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology will ensure safety and efficiency in these taxi services.
Perhaps Musk’s optimism is best explained by the unexpected surge in demand for Tesla vehicles. In late May, he described the recovery to CNBC as a V-shaped event with strong sales rebound. This is a sign that the company is poised for tremendous scale. He acknowledged the future potential of the robotaxi service. If things go smoothly, it could be in the hundreds of thousands, or even a million vehicles, by this time next year. This ambitious goal no doubt speaks to Musk’s deep confidence—faith, even—in the widespread adoption of his vision for the future of transportation.
“I think next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis,” Musk stated, showcasing his typical blend of enthusiasm and conviction. The CEO believes that Tesla’s approach, which relies solely on cameras for navigation, positions the company to deploy these robotaxis rapidly. This strategy would help simplify DOT’s operations and more effectively enable broad public adoption.
Musk further explained the economic upside of this approach, calling it an “Airbnb model for cars.” He explained, “Instead of having your car sit in the parking lot, your car could be earning money.” Either way, Tesla owners will be able to voluntarily participate in the new robotaxi service. For one, they can choose to add their vehicles to the fleet – or remove them – at any time.
Even with Musk’s bold guarantees, doubt remains among the experts tracking the industry. Garrett Nelson, VP of Equity Research at Cornwall Financial Advisors voiced similar concerns about Tesla’s rapid fleet expansion just last month. He wanted to know, “How fast can he grow the fleet? Others in the industry echo similar sentiments. Seth Goldstein pointed out, “When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don’t think that will happen until 2028.”
Musk’s tendency to make unrealistic promises at every turn only compounds this skepticism. After all, he’s made plenty of similar promises before that have yet to see the light of day. Most famously, he misled shareholders in 2018 when he claimed to have “funding secured” to take Tesla private. This previous pattern of behavior results in some investors and analysts looking at his current projections with skepticism.
The expansion of ride-hail robots across the world continues! A fleet of about 50 self-driving cabs is undergoing test runs here in Austin, Texas today. Musk seemed ecstatic about this news, tweeting about it incessantly on social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter). He’s come under fire from time to time for allegedly exaggerating the state of Tesla’s self-driving technology. The phrase Full Self-Driving has already been accused of being misleading, appropriate considering the limitations of existing (and frankly, future) autonomous driving technologies.
Musk supposedly called the government’s vehicle safety regulators after a bad day on Wall Street and picked public fights with them. This tense relationship may prove to be an obstacle for the robotaxi rollout. Analysts vocally laid the blame at his feet for much of the erraticism in Tesla’s stock price. This included a jaw-dropping $150 billion loss as things heated up.
Even in the face of mounting criticism Musk has not shied away from making bold predictions about Tesla’s future. He boldly suggested that Tesla could achieve “99% market share or something ridiculous” as they expand their services. He highlighted that millions of Tesla owners currently on the roads serve as what he describes as his “secret weapon,” potentially facilitating quicker adoption of the robotaxi model.
Meanwhile, Tesla continues to barrel full speed ahead into its ambitious robotaxi plans. In the meantime, questions about technical feasibility and rider safety continue to dog Musk’s futuristic dream. The startup is working on some innovative tech-focused products. Despite this bright future—and indeed because of it—history reminds us that not all promises will advance as intended.
