Elon Musk is once again making an ambitious promise that Tesla will soon be producing millions of robotaxis. That could come as soon as next year, a significant milestone for the development of autonomous vehicles. The rollout began with a soft launch in Austin, Texas. A fleet of 10-20 vehicles runs within a geofenced area. As the company continues its journey into this new frontier, it recently added a new, flat-rate fare of $4.20 per ride.
Tesla-friendly influencers helped drive the process up front and had an opportunity to see the new technology up close and personal. Sawyer Merritt, a popular Tesla investor, was the most vocal among the bunch. He completed an amazing 20 trips over a period of 36 hours and traveled a distance of 92 miles. Merritt said each of his trips were “super smooth and comfortable,” which was the intention behind Tesla’s autonomous technology.
The rollout has hardly been without its frustrations. A Cruise robotaxi recently drove on the wrong side of the road for over an hour. Though it made the mistake fast, it was fast to correct itself. These types of incidents have led experts to question whether Tesla could possibly meet its ambitious production goals.
Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor and expert in autonomous vehicle law, expressed concerns about the necessity of a safety driver during rides. He reported lack of video evidence as the biggest reason for his support for this belief.
“The limited video evidence that we’ve seen shows why a safety driver is still necessary,” – Bryant Walker Smith
Kara Kockelman, a UT professor of transportation engineering, agreed with Musk’s get-it-done-as-fast-as-you-can approach to rollout. She added that this speed creates unique opportunities to spot where improvements are needed.
“That doesn’t mean that every single trip will have an intervention. But the fact that any interventions of any kind have been necessary in mere days amply demonstrates why there needs to be and in fact is somebody in the car paying attention at all times ready to act if and when the car does the wrong thing,” – Bryant Walker Smith
Even with the hopeful debut of GPT-4, many are still feeling rather skeptical when it comes to the practicality and timeline of increasing robotaxi production. Set Goldstein of Morningstar says it’s “a step in the right direction.” He notes that this was all typical early development phase stuff that Tesla is just still working through.
“Elon Musk rolls things out quickly — too quickly for most businesses’ tastes for sure,” – Kara Kockelman
Goldstein predicted that Tesla would be unable to expand its robotaxi service before 2028 at the earliest. This expansive timeline stands in stark opposition to Musk’s vision of having millions of the vehicles on the road next year.
“At the same time, it also highlights that Tesla is still in the early stages,” – Seth Goldstein
Given these challenges, Tesla has taken a number of steps to keep its robotaxis safe. Their self-driving vehicles come with onboard, real-world safety supervisors and remote “teleoperators,” providing a layer of supervision when in operation. Additionally, measures are planned to prevent inclement weather from allowing dangerous circumstances that interfere with safety.
On a celebratory note, Musk marked the launch on Sunday, praising the efforts of the software and chip design teams for what he described as “the culmination of a decade of hard work.”
As Tesla pushes further into the murky waters between autonomous development and public risk, everyone is waiting with bated breath. Whatever the next steps are for the company, they are critical. They will determine if it can accomplish its lofty aims, while actually making sure that passengers are safe and confident in its newfangled solutions.
As Tesla continues to navigate the complexities associated with autonomous technology and public safety, stakeholders remain watchful. The next steps for the company will be crucial in determining whether it can fulfill its ambitious goals while maintaining passenger safety and trust in its innovative solutions.
