Former President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about reaching a significant trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting, slated for later this month at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. This announcement comes amid increasing tension between the U.S. and China. The emphasis has been on unfair trade practices and growing military assertions.
In recent statements, Trump emphasized his favorable relationship with Xi, stating, “I want to be good to China. I love my relationship with President Xi.” Yet he retains an unconquerable hopefulness that their talks will produce some sort of “fantastic deal.” He is convinced that this treaty will be advantageous for both countries and make a positive contribution to the global economy.
The backdrop of their meeting is one swollen with intense trade fights. Trump highlighted that the United States maintains a military superiority over China, asserting, “We have the best equipment. We have the best of everything, and nobody’s going to mess with that.” China’s growing assertiveness and influence is contributing to a more competitive dynamics across the Asia-Pacific region. This is most obvious in the CCP’s increasingly aggressive claims over Taiwan.
In an unexpected move among China’s trade negotiation team, Li Chenggang has been removed as China’s chief trade negotiator. He’s been succeeded by Li Yongjie, until now the deputy international trade representative. Tempers are flaring due to China’s recent imposition of strict export controls on rare earth products. These materials are key to virtually all emerging and advanced industries, but none more so than smart phones and EVs.
In stark contrast to these global developments, Trump has doubled-down on making clear that tariffs are his weapon of choice. For China, he threatens to approve a new 100% tariff on all Chinese imports if talks fail. He stated, “Now, we’ll see what happens. I said, if we don’t make a deal, I’m putting on an additional 100% on November 1. I think we’ll make a deal.” Currently, he wants that a full tariff rate on goods imported from China is about 55% to 57%.
Trump also pointed out that China has paid the United States “hundreds of billions of dollars worth of money for tariffs,” underscoring his administration’s hardline approach toward Beijing. Even experts including Shorenstein Fellow and global trade expert Lin Jian believe that relying on threats of high tariffs to moderate China is the wrong approach. Rather than calming public outcry, such move would only serve to escalate protests.
Not for Trump—despite these warnings, Trump is still extremely bullish on his deep negotiation pivots. Still, he said, I have stronger cards to play on China. One of those is restricting access to key components necessary to produce aircraft. “They can’t get parts for their airplanes. We build their airplanes,” Trump mentioned, signaling potential areas where the U.S. could exercise economic pressure.
Given the stakes, Trump’s first meeting with Xi is doubly significant.
Realities on the Ground
Both leaders are facing intense pressure from their own domestic constituencies. This would be a considerable, if not crippling, blow to the underpinnings of their bilateral relationship. Such instability could be dire for the global economy.
As Xi’s government continues to assert its claims over Taiwan, vowing to reclaim the self-governed island by force if necessary, Trump has downplayed concerns about a potential military conflict over the territory. When questioned about Beijing’s military ambitions regarding Taiwan, he remarked simply, “Well, I’m not going to talk about that.”
