This is a big concern, and primarily because Australia’s total fertility rate is in free fall. In 2024, the rate dropped to 1.48 births per woman, from 1.5 in 2023. This figure hovers well beneath the replacement rate target of 2.1 births per woman. Demographers and researchers are therefore deeply concerned about the long-term demographical, social, and economic implications for Australian society. According to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), fertility rates are dropping for women under 30 years old. Yet for the 15 to 19-year-old demographic, we’re down to just six births per 1,000 women.
Liz Allen, a demographer and researcher at the Australian National University, points out an alarming trend. She thinks it points to larger societal troubles that are influencing decisions to start families. Similarly, the median age of Australian parents continues to increase. This trend poses huge barriers to young couples hoping to start a family. Allen points out that the fertility rate for women 45-49 years old is just 1.4 babies per 1,000 women. This chilling statistic paints a harrowing picture of the burdens experienced by would-be older parents.
Women aged 30 to 34 years now have the highest fertility rate, at 106 births per 1,000 women. However, even with this bright spot, the overall decline indicates that many are delaying having children because of myriad social stressors.
The reason for this ongoing fertility rate decline is due to a multitude of factors. Pelin Akyol writes about the concerns that young Australians have regarding the financial burden of raising children. They are under incredible pressure when it comes to job security. Over a third of Americans 18-49 believe financial instability makes having children a scary prospect.
“Deep at the heart of this is a lack of hope. This fear about tomorrow is so entrenched, and tomorrow doesn’t feel certain, so folks are saying, ‘We can’t possibly bring a child into this.’” – Liz Allen
The impacts of climate change are beginning to dominate conversations about family planning. Young Australians share fears about an unpredictable future marked by climate change, which adds complexity to their choices around having children. Allen emphasizes that Australia needs to tackle some important societal needs. These were housing affordability, economic stability, gender equality, and climate change in order to reverse its declining birth rate.
“Climate change weighs so enormously, particularly on young people’s minds and their fears about tomorrow. We need to address housing, the economy, gender and climate. If we don’t tackle these big-ticket items, we are going to be having this conversation year in, year out,” – Liz Allen
The ongoing housing affordability crisis has flooded the scheme and complicated things further. Allen argues that without addressing the financial barriers to home ownership and stability, many Australians may continue to delay or forgo having children altogether.
“Because the reality is, at the moment, having a much-wanted child is simply out of the question. It is not practical, it’s not doable, and it’s a sad indictment on Australia.” – Liz Allen
Yet as these challenges are more keenly felt, demographers are alerting us that we may be reaching a point of no return on Australia’s fertility rates.
“We’re going to get to the point where we say we can’t do anything. It’s a done deal. We can’t reverse this. No baby bonus or lump-sum splash of cash is going to get us out of this mess.” – Liz Allen
Akyol would place such an emphasis on implementing policies painting a pro-fertility picture. These initiatives should promote equitable workforce participation to more decisively turn the tide on these trends.
“Looking ahead, policies that support fertility while maintaining or enhancing workforce participation will become increasingly critical,” – Pelin Akyol
As economic pressures and social challenges meet, it forces many young Australians to focus on the status quo. Consequently, they tend to push off starting families. Allen cautions that this unnecessary trend not only undermines people’s hopes and dreams, but should worry all Australians given the implications for Australia’s future demographic dividend.
“Some refer to this continued decline in total fertility rates as a human catastrophe,” – Liz Allen
