Now, as winter sets in, health experts are raising the alarm. Many fear that a new, more virulent strain of COVID-19 might turn back the clock on their declining death rates experienced in recent months. Counting deaths from the first few months of 2025, we’ve counted 514 COVID-19-related deaths so far this year. This is in addition to the decline we have experienced over the past two years in fatalities. Experts stress that knowing the virus’s mutations are key, as seasonal factors could worsen transmission.
Paul Griffin, an infectious disease specialist, said with respiratory viruses like COVID-19 the risk of death increases in winter months. He explained that this inextricable rise was due to environmental influences. “When it is colder, people are more likely to be indoors and in closer proximity to others,” he said. “There can also be decreased ventilation and airflow as people may close windows to keep the cold out.” Together, these conditions form a perfect breeding ground for viral spread.
With 2023 having seen the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 in Australia (4,609), this figure fell even further to 3,871 in 2024. The flattening of the overall mortality rate provides hope in the face of this darkness. Griffin cautions that emerging strains can quickly quell this hopeful trend. “Just recently we’ve seen a new strain: NB.1.8.1, which seems to have different characteristics from other variants,” he noted. He couldn’t say if the lowering mortality rates will march on amid the virus’s evolution.
Catherine Bennett, an epidemiologist, described this as a COVID-19 “wild card,” emphasizing the unpredictable nature of COVID-19 infection. “COVID can be different from one infection to the next in the same person,” she stated. This unpredictability creates serious challenges in forecasting the virus’s movements, further complicated by the appearance of new strains every few months.
As children head back into schools and winter approaches, vaccination efforts are extremely important. This week, the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance in Australia reported a worrying development. By 2023, vaccination rates for children between 12 months and 5 years old are significantly lower than they were in 2020. Bennett highlighted the need for immunization as our nation navigates this pivotal time. “So, actually, having a vaccine now as winter comes is the right time,” she said. “It takes a couple of weeks to get the best out of a vaccine to actually get that boosting happening.”
By the summer months of 2025, the incidence of COVID-19 had plateaued. Health experts say that this trend will almost certainly contribute to an increase of infections as we head into winter. Bennett described it as “a sad irony that a quiet summer in infections may lead us to seeing more people exposed in winter.” Understanding long COVID is still critical, she emphasized, since we don’t yet have data on how it interacts with immunity.
Griffin again underscored the need for ongoing progress to understand the way that COVID-19 is adapting and evolving. As scientists, there is still much that we don’t understand,” he said. He noted that even though mortality rates have improved, the experts are still wary about what the future may bring.
Bennett estimates that the usual effects of COVID-19 peaks during the winter months, taking an average of six to eight weeks. This trend highlights the need for everyone to be vaccinated and stay protected as we move into the winter months.
