The contest for the Bradfield electorate has narrowed considerably. After preferences Nicolette Boele is now ahead by only 39 votes. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will be forced to trigger an automatic recount given such a slender margin. If the winning margin is less than 100 votes, the AEC requires a recount. Looking beyond the math, the potential recount has important ramifications. Both Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian and Boele’s supporters are intently following results as they come in.
The AEC are proactively stepping up to the plate. Recounting begins on Monday, Aug 29th, with the final distribution of preferences taking up to 7 days. This recount will be a comprehensive hand count of each and every legal and illegal ballot. The objective is to derive a new count of first choice votes for all candidates.
Historical Context of Close Elections
Although close electoral races such as these do not happen often in Australian politics, there is a historical precedent that can illustrate the catastrophic consequences of a narrow margin. In the 1990 federal election, the Labor Party lost the Adelaide seat of Hawker to the Coalition by 14 votes. Rather than seek to overturn the result, they embraced their loss. During the 1995 Queensland election, the Labor Party only narrowly retained their Townsville seat of Mundingburra. In fact, they won by only 16 votes, illustrating just how important each ballot can be.
In a stunning upset, the Labor Party caused an upset to take the Geelong seat in the 1999 Victorian state election. They triumphed, winning passage by a razor thin margin of only 16 votes. These instances underscore the weight that small vote differences can carry in determining election outcomes, often leading to intense scrutiny and debates over electoral integrity.
The Court of Disputed Returns has a precedent, although seldom used, of voiding election results due to serious errors in electoral conduct. This underscores just how important transparency and accuracy are to the voting process. Such historical contexts serve as reminders of the potential repercussions following close elections, and how they can affect parties and candidates alike.
The Role of Preferences in Bradfield
Fast forward to the current Bradfield byelection – the Greens and Labor are riding high on that national wave. This success is clearly reflected in Absent and Pre-Poll Declaration votes. Each of these votes has the potential to significantly influence the final vote. They are extremely important to the overall preference distribution that determines a candidate’s victory. According to the indicative preference count, Boele is now ahead of Kapterian. This lead is extremely tenuous, especially given the fact that their margin is razor thin.
The AEC’s method of distributing preferences was implemented in 1993 to make the process more transparent for candidates and monitor as well. This new system avoids this flaw and provides a clearer view of how voter support is changing as candidates get knocked out of the race. In this scenario, a second distribution of preferences in Bradfield will be crucial. It would either ensure Boele’s lead over Kapterian holds up, or flip the contest entirely.
If Boele remains in the lead once all preferences have been counted, she would be guaranteed victory. If her margin is greater than 100 votes, Kapterian would have little recourse to contest the outcome. Short of a successful judicial challenge to trigger a recount, Boele’s name will go back in as the elected representative for Bradfield. That means he will formally occupy the role.
Financial Implications of a Re-election
A possible recount or re-election in Bradfield would have big fiscal consequences. Holding a special re-election is a costly venture, one that can break the bank for party operatives and potentially waste taxpayer money. There are the considerable costs associated with organizing a new election. Democrats and Republicans alike will have to re-evaluate their approaches to campaigning and funding priorities with these changes.
Political observers remind us that tight political races are the enlivening force that drive up voter turnout. They present obstacles for money in some future campaign seasons. All candidates will have to reconsider their tactics depending on possible results coming out of this new recount process.
