A new study reveals a troubling connection between climate change and the increased frequency of urban fires, particularly in New Zealand. Conducted by a team of Australian and international researchers, the study warns that cities across the globe could witness a 40% surge in fires by 2100 if global temperatures rise unchecked beyond 4 degrees Celsius. The findings, published in Nature Cities, emphasize the dire consequences of a warming planet on urban environments.
The researchers, led by a team from Hefei University in China with contributions from RMIT and Charles Darwin University, analyzed data from over 2,800 cities across 20 countries, including the USA, UK, Australia, and China. They discovered that for every 1 degree increase in air temperature, vehicle and outdoor fires could rise by 3.3% and 6.9%, respectively. This alarming trend suggests that fires might become a more common hazard in urban areas, affecting cities that house over 20% of the world's population.
Fires currently claim an estimated 50,000 lives annually and injure 170,000 people globally. The new research predicts that, without significant intervention, these figures could soar to 335,000 deaths and 1.1 million injuries from 2020 to 2100 due to climate-induced fire increases. However, if global warming is contained below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the potential fire-related fatalities could be halved.
"Future trends of fire frequency in urban environments are uncertain, even though they often cause more human casualties and economic damage than some other fire types, such as wildfires. This lack of understanding might compromise regional fire resource management and urban planning," stated the researchers.
The study highlights New Zealand as having the strongest correlation between rising temperatures and increased fire incidents. By 2100, the frequency of vehicle fires is expected to increase by 11.6%, while outdoor fires could jump by 22.2%. This predicted rise in fire incidents underscores the necessity for enhanced fire management strategies and urban planning to mitigate the risks posed by climate change.
"We found that the building fire frequency overall was going on a decreasing trend under global warming. But this does not mean all countries and regions could [would] go through the same trend," explained Professor Long.
