The New START treaty has been an important framework for nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia. Originally passed in 2015, this week it is scheduled to expire. Originally signed in 2010, the treaty was extended this past February 2021. It caps both countries at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 800 strategic launchers, deployed or non-deployed. With its expiration fast-approaching, fears of a new nuclear arms race increase. This concern is amplified due to the rapidly deteriorating relations between the two countries.
Our New START treaty started in 2011 with a ten-year intention. It aims to further lower the two countries’ nuclear arsenals and increase global security. Second, it requires very tight constraints on the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Each side is limited to 700 deployed heavy bombers as well. Recently, the treaty’s effectiveness has been severely compromised. The US has already suspended its own obligations for Russia to allow inspectors into their weapons arsenal. This ruling opens up a chilling loophole in verification procedures.
Deteriorating Relations
On 1 February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the widely expected announcement that Russia would be suspending its own commitments under the New START treaty. He rebuffed the United States’ attempts to extend inspections of its no-longer-existing nuclear arsenal. Even while keeping actual numerical compliance with the treaty’s limits, on a practical level, Russia has broken from agreed upon inspection protocols. This has sparked concerns about transparency and accountability over such nuclear capabilities, leading to worries over an unfettered and opaque arms buildup.
Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating, “This is the end of 50 years of effort at nuclear arms control, and it opens the door wide to a new nuclear arms race. It’s a terrifying prospect.” He criticized former President Donald Trump for what he described as a “catastrophic abdication of responsibility,” suggesting that Trump failed to pursue potential extensions of the treaty when they were available.
The consequences of the treaty’s expiration go beyond the numbers. Yet experts caution that it would push the strategic dynamics between the two powers towards a highly destabilizing tipping point. Tilman Ruff, a prominent advocate for nuclear disarmament, warned that “the end of the New START treaty will bring a definitive and alarming end to nuclear restraint between the two powers.”
Calls for a New Agreement
Against this backdrop of discord, Trump appears willing to return to the negotiating table with a revised offer. He’s not worried enough by the current treaty’s prospects. He stated, “If it expires, it expires… We’ll just do a better agreement.” Reactions to Trump’s comments from international leaders and analysts have been similarly divided. Many advocates argue that any new negotiations should involve, in addition to the U.S. and Russia, other countries such as China.
“I actually feel strongly that if we’re going to do it, I think China should be a member of the extension,” Trump remarked. He added that including other nations in discussions is essential: “You probably want to get a couple of other players involved.” His recommendations are intended to encourage more inclusive and participatory dialogue about arms control. Critics say that they take the fire out of the very real urgency to protect existing pacts.
Need for strategic discussions
European leadership has reiterated similar worries on the need for strategic dialogues around nuclear deterrence. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that there must be “a strategic debate on using our deterrent to protect our allies on the European continent,” indicating that European nations are preparing for possible shifts in security dynamics.
The Future of Arms Control
With the New START treaty set to expire soon, legislators, experts, and activists are all urging an immediate return to arms control talks. Friedrich Merz, the first opposition leader with backbone and military experience, understood that a strategic and military policy turnaround was urgent. Yet, he noted in his testimony that “the moment is not yet at hand” for these conversations.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) has warned that the demise of the New START treaty could lead to a new arms race between the two largest nuclear powers. Absent this legal baseline, both states may come under domestic and international pressure to further develop and increase their nuclear stockpiles. This counter-reaction would occur in response to imagined threats.
