Today the United States is undergoing a historic shift in its leverage over Israel. This abrupt turn comes in the midst of uncomfortable geopolitical realities developing in the Middle East. Recent news adds to the emerging rift between Washington and Jerusalem, especially as it pertains to Israel’s increasingly reckless policy toward Iran. The two countries possess a close umbilical tie. What’s painfully clear is that the US has less leverage over Israel now than most were expecting.
Throughout his presidency, former President Donald Trump attempted to cool the growing animosity between Israel and Iran. Sadly, his attempts fell short. Trump’s close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not translate into effective restraint on Israel’s military actions. Israel’s leaders, too, have made courageous moves in the past months. This means everything from launching precision strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to conducting targeted assassinations of high-ranking Iranian security bigwigs. These steps are a perfect case study of Netanyahu’s desire to ignore US pressure.
US-Israel Relations: A Complicated Landscape
As you know, the United States gives Israel a huge amount of military support, which totals to $3.8 billion per year. For all that financial support, Washington has not been terribly successful in using its leverage to influence Israeli decision-making. Recent developments unfortunately shed light on a dangerous new trend. Israel understood that when their actions provoked the ire or warning from the US, there would be no consequences.
Trump put pressure on Netanyahu. Trump even spelled out his displeasure over Israeli military escalations during intense negotiations with Iran. He stated, “As long as I think there will be an agreement [with Iran], I don’t want them going in.” Yet despite these sentiments, Netanyahu’s government has fully revealed their commitment and determination to continue with military operations against the US wishes and desires.
The scene is happening because of the American, Lebanese, human calamity now in Gaza strip, crescent in the south before a dispute in support of entry Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US has repeatedly failed to intervene and stop Israeli actions that increase regional instability and oppose US interests. Washington’s inability to prevent the escalation of violence has raised questions about its effectiveness as a mediator in the region.
Israel’s Military Strategy: Independence from US Oversight
Netanyahu’s government looks to be becoming more and more independent of the US, regularly brushing off US worries about Israel’s military actions. The prime minister’s recent, unexpected moves to directly strike Iranian nuclear facilities and remove major Iranian leaders are indicative of this turn. Such actions would represent a significant shift in Israel’s behaviour, highlighting its preference to act on such matters without American pressure or influence.
These have posed problems for the Biden administration as well, as the White House tries to exert sway over Israeli military operations. Despite attempts to engage Israel diplomatically, the US has struggled to deter its ally from pursuing aggressive policies against perceived threats. The Biden administration’s recent lifting of a freeze on transferring 2,000-pound precision-guided bombs to Israel makes this point especially clear. The decision to provide these munitions signals a concession that benefits Israel while raising further concerns about the ramifications for regional stability.
Together, these advancements further demonstrate that Israel’s military intentions are guided solely by its strategic interests. Counterproductively for its own purposes, it is increasingly out of sync with US foreign policy goals. This burgeoning assertiveness has profound implications for the future of US-Israel relations. It further asks us to think about the wider ramifications for American power in the region.
A Changing Middle East Landscape
As we know, the dynamics in the Middle East are ever-evolving. As these regional actors become more confident, US influence seems to be waning on their foreign policy choices. Israel’s recent military operations clearly show Israel’s willingness to put its national security fears ahead of its loyalties to any historical allies. This change is felt outside of the Israeli-Iranian contest, affecting other regional players such as Hezbollah and Palestinian factions as well.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has become an embarrassing flashpoint that has soured Americans’ view of Israel. The Biden administration’s inability to broker peace or stabilize the situation reflects a broader trend of diminishing American leverage in Middle Eastern affairs. As violence grows and humanitarian conditions worsen, Washington’s tools are becoming less able to shape events or lead to a return to stability.
The geopolitical context we are working in is shifting incredibly fast. It is anyone’s guess how the United States will play its role in America’s second-island chain in the future. Israel’s growing independence may make it harder for the administration to pursue an active diplomatic track. This provision fuels Trump’s deadly and reckless escalation of tensions with Iran and other foes.
