Former President Donald Trump’s indaba with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese just a few weeks ago. Arming the United States’ closest ally, he made a commitment to the AUKUS defense pact, stating it to be “full steam ahead.” The conversation ranged widely, but much of it focused on the U.S.’s emerging international posture, especially toward China. Trump’s approach includes downplaying the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan and bragging that he gets along “very well” with China’s President Xi Jinping.
In a meeting that surprised some analysts, Trump offered his most extensive comments on Taiwan since resuming office in January. Taken together, his remarks conveyed an urgent desire for restoration of diplomatic relations and dialogue as an alternative to military confrontation. This sentiment was echoed by international relations expert James Curran. He argued that Trump had made it clear early on that he was not interested in a new Cold War with China.
AUKUS Deal and Submarine Production
The AUKUS trilateral security agreement, blasted through with little public or congressional deliberation, is centered on sharing defense technology and building nuclear-powered subs. Neither country has much to lose in this partnership. Trump’s assertion that America has “a tremendous amount of submarines” speaks to the long-term investment made in America’s submarine industrial base. As former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pointed out, that’s the main problem. In actual production output, however, the U.S. has had a difficult time increasing production rates—averaging just 1.1 to 1.2 submarines per year—despite investing billions of dollars.
Australia’s $3 billion add-on for AUKUS framework submarine production. Despite this, Turnbull raised alarm bells that the production rate must more than double to guarantee that Australia receives enough vessels. “Warm words are great, but they don’t build submarines,” he remarked, highlighting the challenges facing the partnership.
“Sadly, it doesn’t,” – Malcolm Turnbull (referring to the US having enough submarines).
Trump and Rudd: A Tense Interaction
During the meeting, Trump addressed former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, making headlines with his blunt comment: “I don’t like you, and I probably never will.” This statement reflects the longstanding tension between Trump and Rudd, who has been a vocal critic of the former president. Even with this tension in mind, here’s why Turnbull argued you shouldn’t read too much into Trump’s comments about Rudd.
I imagine seeking vengeance on Kevin Rudd would be extremely low on Donald Trump’s wish list,” Turnbull said. He concluded with the note that Trump’s remarks, after all, sounded more like tongue-in-cheek jokes than reflections of any true antagonism.
“He said America had lots of submarines,” – Malcolm Turnbull.
Diplomatic Relations with China
Trump’s comments on China have been most noticed for what seems to be an abrupt turn to a more accommodating stance. He implied that he has developed the index of confidence in engagement approach with Xi Jinping. It got really good now. This view tracks with Turnbull’s earlier statement that Australia does not need to deter China.
“We don’t need to deter China because President Xi, filled with goodwill and bonhomie towards President Trump, is not going to contemplate any hostilities,” Turnbull explained. These kinds of statements point to a clear intention to establish a more predictable relationship between the U.S. and China, with an emphasis on communication over conflict.
“He genuinely is not a warmonger, and I know that from my own discussions with him in the past. He wants peace,” – Malcolm Turnbull.
