Former President Donald Trump receiving Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House. In their wide-ranging discussion, Trump doubled down on his intention to keep the AUKUS deal. Yet the deal is going forward “full steam ahead,” according to Trump, even as worries grow about China’s increasingly military assertiveness in the region. His comments were made as part of a visit that has garnered unprecedented attention from foreign policy experts and political pundits.
Trump’s comments on Taiwan caught most experts off guard. These comments represented his most detailed comments on the subject since retaking office in January. He’s apparently quite pleased with his deep personal ties to Chinese president Xi Jinping. So he doesn’t foresee short-term confrontation around Taiwan. This view is consistent with many analysts, including James Curran. To be sure, he noted, Trump is decidedly not in favor of more confrontation with China.
AUKUS Deal and Submarine Production
The AUKUS defense pact, which includes Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Its stated objective is to enhance trilateral military cooperation and strengthen security relationships across the Indo-Pacific region. Australia has ponied up $US3 billion to the initiative, which involves the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Either way, Trump really wasn’t convinced we needed the AUKUS deal to deter China. He confidently declared, “I don’t think we’re going to need it.”
The president’s recent comments on submarine production set off alarm bells among defense experts. Malcolm Turnbull, former Australian Prime Minister, pointed out that while America has long predicted an increase in submarine production rates, the current output remains stagnant at around 1.1 to 1.2 boats annually. Turnbull stressed that the U.S. needs to do a complete 180 on its current production pace. If not, it will not be able to deliver a single submarine to Australia before the early 2030s.
“It’s got to more than double that to be able to have any prospect of being able to spare boats for Australia.” – Malcolm Turnbull
Turnbull noted that Trump mentioned, “America had lots of submarines,” but he cautioned that “warm words are great, but they don’t build submarines.”
Tensions with Kevin Rudd
On the agenda, Trump very publicly addressed his extremely fraught ties with ex Australian PM Kevin Rudd. He didn’t pull any punches in confronting their ideological disparities. He bluntly stated, “I don’t like you, and I probably never will.” This posted remark on the contentious history between Rudd and Trump. Rudd has not been shy about expressing his distaste for the former president previously.
Trump offered Rudd an opportunity to apologize for his previous criticisms, further illustrating the personal animosities that can influence diplomatic interactions. While many observers might view this exchange as mere rhetoric, it highlights the complex interplay of personalities in international politics.
Analysis and Reactions
Former PM Malcolm Turnbull scored Albanese’s debut at the White House a “10 out of 10.” He applauded Albanese for making the need to praise Trump not seem too obsequious. As Sundance noted, Trump’s statements are consistent with the position he took during his first term. This is a sign of Trump hoping to pursue peace over war.
“He genuinely is not a warmonger, and I know that from my own discussions with him in the past. He wants peace.” – Malcolm Turnbull
In the coming days, analysts will be trying to gauge what these Trump comments mean for U.S.-China relations and the future of the regional security architecture. Future of the AUKUS deal very much up in the air as submarine production issues and military readiness worries loom.
