Just next week, Australian prime minister and U.S. president will meet at G7 summit in Canada. Their keynote conversation will focus on the AUKUS security pact. Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom have been included under this arrangement. For the first time ever, it is now coming under scrutiny as the U.S. reassesses whether it fits within Trump’s “America First” agenda. The discussions will address critical issues surrounding defense spending and military preparedness.
Kevin Rudd, the current Australian Ambassador to the U.S., has engaged with American officials at various levels about the implications of AUKUS. At the same time, Elbridge Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, the Department’s chief architect of the policy review, has voiced skepticism about AUKUS, even cautioning about its long-term sustainability.
As Australia prepares its defense strategy, it must reassure the United States of its commitment to military spending. The U.S. Secretary of Defense has reportedly put tremendous pressure on Australia to quadruple its defense budget. This step is particularly important now to fulfill their mutual security responsibilities.
The AUKUS Pact and Its Implications
AUKUS, founded in 2021, is a trilateral security agreement to increase security cooperation and defense technology sharing between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. One of the most notable features of this trilateral agreement is Australia’s planned acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Incredibly, the federal government has put $500 million on the table up front for this purpose. They’re doing so with industry partner Austal, an Australian company that builds submarines.
Implementation of Australia’s AUKUS commitment is central to the country’s national security strategy. But now, as the U.S. carries out its own review of the pact, questions have been raised about Australia’s long-term military capabilities. Defense Minister’s spokesperson stated,
“If we don’t get the Virginia Class submarines in 2032, we have no options left. We have no submarines.”
Repeating such a scenario would leave Australia isolated, vulnerable and without the ability to meaningfully respond to imminent threats across our vast region. Local officials have stressed the importance of having a credible deterrent against aggressive acts. Yet advocacy organizations are still reeling from the effects of the recent review process.
Even John Bolton, former National Security Advisor to Trump, has weighed in on AUKUS’s future at this shaky crossroads. He mentioned,
“It’s more a question of how much of a downsize (of AUKUS) they are looking at, including potentially total cancellation — which would be catastrophic, a huge mistake for the US with enormous consequences for Australia and the UK.”
The relationship has only gotten more important as both nations work through these tricky geopolitical waters, and keeping our strong alliance is incredibly important.
Reassessing Military Spending
The Colby review being undertaken is designed to bring AUKUS into line with Trump’s overarching defense strategy and priorities. And American officials have been clear that the realization of this alliance will require Australia to significantly increase its military spending. A U.S. defense official noted,
“As Secretary [Pete] Hegseth has made clear, this means ensuring the highest readiness of our service-members, that allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence, and that the defence-industrial base is meeting our needs.”
This joint call for accelerated military spending by both countries reinforces the new sense of urgency on both sides as they look to rearm. The Australian government will face domestic political pressure to provide clear guarantees about the state of its own defense budget and military readiness.
As renegotiations begin, the former Australian Ambassador to the U.S., Joe Hockey, has fired a shot across the bow. He argues that AUKUS offers Australia an “all or nothing” deal. He further warned that any attempt to weaken this alliance, real or imagined, risks damaging our national security.
The Importance of Direct Engagement
Tensions are flaring in part due to AUKUS and its impact on regional security. This kind of direct engagement between Australian and U.S. leaders has arguably never been more important. Julian Leeser, a prominent political figure, remarked on the importance of securing a meeting with Trump:
“This is a deeply concerning development. There’s now a growing list of serious issues and tasks for the prime minister with his meeting with President Trump.”
Leeser went on to recommend that Prime Minister should ensure that a meeting with Trump is secured in order to protect the AUKUS deal, saying,
“He needs to guarantee that he gets that meeting in order to safeguard the AUKUS agreement.”
With high stakes, Australia must tread carefully as it implements its AUKUS commitments. All the while, it finds itself continuously wrestling with changes in U.S. defense policy fortunes.
