As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen prepare to announce a new, bold medium-term climate target for Australia, their stated goal? To truly get to zero emissions as early as 2035. This target is intended to be more ambitious than targets set by Canada’s and New Zealand’s allies. Even this is not enough—nowhere near the United Kingdom’s aggressive targets. The next announcement will be just as dramatic, affecting national policy in the opposite direction and coloring everything the federal government does going forward. It will set the country on course to achieve its aim of net zero emissions by 2050.
Continuing that pattern, the next target is a tricky mix of aspiration and pragmatism. Now the Australian government is targeting an ambitious goal of 2035. They aim for a 65 to 75 percent reduction in emissions, somewhere in the middle of the range recommended by Climate Change Authority. We believe this strategic move is the most impactful way to fight climate change. It responds to the global imperative for emissions reductions, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently underscored. As the IPCC made clear in their latest report, we really need to be cutting emissions 68 percent by 2035. Significantly, this reduction is necessary for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Implications for National Policy
The 2035 climate target will help define Australia’s national priorities and spending undertakings. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are dreaming mighty dreams. Their goal is to set a rigorous but realistic goal for the federal government to strive toward. Chalmers assured that his department ran a lot of rigorous modeling to arrive at this ambitious target. This target is in line with the federal government’s past commitment to decrease emissions by 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
“Based on the best evidence and the best forecasts before us from the Climate Change Authority and other experts right across the government, that’s what we’ll be doing.” – Chris Bowen
Together, these efforts highlight an important new approach to climate policymaking that recognizes the reality of environmental limits and economic practicality. We encourage the government to adopt a bold approach here, to really lead by example and create some strong precedents for future administrations. They note that achieving net zero emissions requires a collective commitment and bold investment.
Comparative Targets and Global Standards
Taking on a 2035 commitment would put Australia in good company, and see it taking on a leadership role among other like-minded nations. The anticipated goal will surpass Canada’s target of reducing emissions by 45 to 50 percent below 2005 levels and New Zealand’s aim of achieving a 51 to 55 percent reduction. It will still remain lower than the UK’s target of cutting emissions by approximately 78 percent from the same baseline.
This strategic positioning speaks to Australia’s broader strategic agenda of wanting to show leadership in climate action whilst balancing the economic realities at home. Countries like Brazil, Ghana, and Bangladesh are matching their level of ambition. Japan has unveiled a national target to reduce emissions by 60 percent compared to 2013 levels. In the meantime, Brazil has committed to a target of 59 to 67 percent reduction compared to 2005 levels.
The mixed bag of international targets underscores a high-stakes, potentially make-or-break moment for global climate policy. All nations are trying to reach big targets. Moving forward, Australia’s leadership could encourage others to make similar commitments, particularly among their neighbours in the Asia-Pacific.
The Road Ahead
Looking forward, Australia’s new climate target will shape the trajectory of its environmental policies and international standing in climate negotiations. The government intends to use these 2030 strategies as building blocks towards the 2035 target. These strategies were developed as the result of robust consultations and modeling.
Climate scientists tell us that we can’t afford to miss our ambitious targets. If we don’t succeed, we will be faced with warming over two degrees Celsius, resulting in extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other devastating effects on global health. In light of these warnings, Australia’s commitment will not just serve as a policy framework but as a crucial step toward fulfilling its obligations under international climate agreements.
Jerome Laxale, an environmental advocate, emphasized the importance of ambitious targets:
“The number or the range to be announced this week is very important. But you know, to me it’s not a ceiling. We need to get to net zero as soon as possible.”
Yet the climate community is indeed under this high sense of urgency. Australia are preparing for what could be a historic turning point in Australia’s long, troubled climate policy history.
