As Iran faces unprecedented unrest, China’s quick response illustrates its strategic goals to beat the U.S. on the world stage. This aligns with President Xi Jinping’s broader ambition to place China squarely at the center of a revamped international order. China is not trying to rule the world, but to rule in the complexities of international relations. Rather than countering a coalition of states bent on sanctions and military escalation, it opts for self-interest. This balancing act has greatly empowered China’s relations with adversaries such as Iran, North Korea, and Russia. This change has been particularly notable amid the strains of sanctions and increasingly sharp geopolitical tensions.
In 2023, China became Iran’s top trading partner, with trade between the two countries hitting over $14.7 billion. Additionally, China’s reliance on Iranian oil has deepened. Last year, it imported over 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports, amounting to around 1.38 million barrels per day. Despite these economic connections, China’s public response to the unrest in Iran has been remarkably muted. This caution betrays a shrewd geopolitical approach, one that values stability more than combat.
The Nature of China’s Relationship with Iran
China’s ties to Iran have always been transactional, determined largely by their need for energy and trade routes. In many ways, this relationship is upside-down. In the current geopolitical environment, Iran is no longer the traditional China ally as the West perceives it. It does everything possible to maximize economic benefits that can be derived from its partnership. Simultaneously, it skillfully dances around the deeper strains attached to Iran’s domestic pressures.
China seems to know the importance of treading carefully. The Chinese Communist Party considers the unrest in Iran to be, but one a geopolitical adversary. They believe it is a more important governance challenge. This distinction is important in thinking about what’s going on with China. This would be broadly consistent with Beijing’s strategy. They focus on creating stability in areas where they have specific investments, especially in energy resources.
Additionally, China’s experience with its own internal issues has shaped how it approaches external partnerships. For instance, its handling of dissent in Xinjiang and other regions demonstrates a preference for control rather than direct intervention. This instinct furthers China’s desire to aid Iran while avoiding getting caught up in its domestic conflict.
Managing Tensions While Maintaining Interests
This creates a tightrope for Beijing to walk in its dealings with Iran. Unlike its competitors, it opts out of both total peace and total war at the strategic level. The goal would be to keep these managed tensions—judicious enough to challenge US hegemony in the region while avoiding a disruption of the current order. This precarious balancing act reveals China’s awareness of the stakes in US intervention, and their larger significance for the direction of global governance.
China is acutely aware that any escalation in Iran could validate long-standing criticisms it holds against US interventionism. By maintaining a measured response, China positions itself as a stabilizing force while avoiding the pitfalls associated with deeper military involvement. This strategy reflects an understanding that nonregional actors contribute to regional instability. This arrangement benefits Iran but more importantly for China, it complements China’s broader economic and strategic objectives.
China’s restraint is no indication that it is being passive. Instead, it’s a sign of a strategic decision to put its aims first in an evolving geopolitical environment. Chinese leadership is well aware that supporting US military moves into Iran would lead to significant chaos. This region is the heart of China’s energy security and strategic dream.
Implications for Global Geopolitics
The broader repercussions of Iran’s protests have tremendous implications for global geopolitics. At the same time, China is enhancing and deepening its ties with countries being sanctioned or shunned by the United States. As a result, it is increasingly becoming an ally of choice for states such as Iran that oppose the United States and its allies. Further, this transition has the potential to upend longstanding international relations alliances and power dynamics.
That China has been so deft in balancing its relationship with Iran while pursuing this broader strategy to reshape global order should be a wake-up call. China is cementing closer economic relations, establishing a broader sphere of influence. It is doing this without directly endorsing measures that could incite war, establishing itself as a leader on the global stage.
