The war in Ukraine has already gone on almost as long as World War I. It still is, introducing new challenges and opportunities every day to European countries. At first, Ukraine enjoyed overwhelming strategic and technological superiority, particularly in the field of drone warfare and technological warfare. This advantage allowed Ukraine to outmaneuver and offset Russian attacks. With the conflict now in its third year, these benefits have largely evaporated.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to mock – and most internauts would say threaten – NATO and Western Europe by minimizing predictable European concerns over his military expansionism. Just last week, he reiterated that Russia never intended to attack Europe. He warned that, if provoked, the country is prepared to retaliate. This unprecedented emergency has forced European countries to reevaluate their military posture and defense preparedness.
The Institute for the Study of War and the Atlantic Council recently released detailed analysis. These analyses provide a wealth of information about the current state of the conflict. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has recently called attention to this increased reliance on critical minerals—a key ingredient to defense production. This reliance is making European rearmament efforts even harder.
Technological Shifts in Warfare
At the beginning of the war, it was pretty obvious that Ukraine was the IT superpower. It was a testament to how quickly the nation could harness its industry’s technical capabilities to develop groundbreaking solutions for its emerging defense requirements. As noted in an Atlantic Council report, “At the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s vibrant tech sector represented an important asset that the authorities in Kyiv were quick to mobilise.” That flexibility was key to Ukraine’s success with drones and other techno-fetishized weapons.
Yet, as the conflict has evolved, that technological advantage has slipped away from Ukraine. The Atlantic Council describes the current situation as “widely recognised as the world’s first drone war.” Russia has adjusted after suffering early defeats and its forces are now methodically grinding away much of what gives Ukraine the edge. The Kremlin has wrapped itself in robust support from allies like China or Iran. These countries have contributed invaluable pieces and schematics for state-of-the-art drone technology.
Based on recent evaluations, Russia’s drone units have taken great strides. This positive momentum does not mean that Moscow is guaranteed a major strategic victory. According to the Atlantic Council, recent trends show a widening imperative that Ukraine needs to address in order to claw back lost momentum.
Supply Chain Challenges
European arms companies at the same time are accelerating adaptations to meet the needs of this long, drawn-out war. As SIPRI has noted, these companies are pouring billions into new production capacities to catch up with increasing armament requirements. Yet this significant climate progress is threatened by an increasing reliance on critical minerals including copper and titanium.
The SIPRI report warns, “As an example of the risks of such dependence,” emphasizing that supply chain vulnerabilities could jeopardize military readiness. Importantly, industry leaders like Airbus and France’s Safran had been getting half of their pre-2022 titanium requirements from Russia. Due to these shifts in geopolitical landscape, they’ve had to look to other suppliers, making their logistical operations all the more complex.
All critical minerals are experiencing supply chain constraining as highlighted by the competitive solicitation release by DOD. French company Thales and German manufacturer Rheinmetall expressed concern that they would incur excessive costs by having to retool their supply chains. These worries are a result of recent Chinese export barriers on key minerals. This precarious situation is indicative of the larger plight European defense industries are facing as they attempt to ramp up arsenals.
Battlefield Developments
On the ground Russian advances have had stunning success, as in the key strategic city of Pokrovsk. During the first half of 2025, Russian ground forces were able to accomplish partial BA operations effects. This success has severely restricted and degraded Ukrainian GLOCs or ground lines of communications. This leap forward has allowed significant Russian infiltration missions and has deteriorated Ukraine’s ability to treat and operate tactical mobile defenses.
Putin’s statements about the special military operation against Europe show foresight and careful preparations to address threats. “Russia does not intend to fight Europe, but if Europe starts, we are ready right now,” he stated recently. This assertion underscores the delicate balance of power between Russia and European nations as they navigate an increasingly volatile landscape.
Beyond the significant humanitarian crisis, the conflict has major ramifications for Europe’s security architecture and defense postures. Now, countries struggle with lack of institutional and human resources to absorb new rapidly advancing technologies. War’s victor might come down to who can best procure key materials and technologies, and who can innovate quickest to changing conditions of battle.
