In this closely contested election, the Australian Greens—with their charismatic leader, Adam Bandt —are playing a dangerous game. As results roll in, Bandt is realistic about the likely fate of a number of party seats. He underscores how competitive the races are. The likelihood of a drastic diminution of their representation in the lower house appears to be high. It might cost Bandt his own seat in Melbourne.
As the votes continue to be counted, Adam Bandt stated, “There’s obviously some more votes to come in, and so many people voted early.” This pointed remark illustrates the sometimes capricious nature of electoral politics. The Greens have been losing tight margins in key battlegrounds.
A Repeat of 2022?
Bandt warned supporters of a similar trick from 2022. At that time, the party could barely hold on to its base in parliament. This year, the stakes are every bit as high. The Greens are under serious threat to lose their only lower house seat. Labor clearly has the advantage in the two-party preferred vote with Bandt in Melbourne.
The leader of the Greens noted, “I think that people all over Australia have seen what it looks like when they have a representative that answers to them and not a party.” This feeling is a testament to the party’s prioritization of representing their grassroots base in an often-stormy electoral weather.
Bandt is particularly concerned by the potential wipe-out of Greens representation. To many Australians, he has been the face of the Greens for a decade, frequently being the only Greens member in the Australian lower house (the House of Representatives). He remains optimistic about gaining ground. The DFL will have a good shot at winning two of the other three seats as well, showing that while challenges linger, so too do opportunities.
Close Contests in Key Seats
In Richmond, the race is still a three-cornered contest where the Greens are still in front. The outlook seems pretty bleak for the party in adjacent Wills, where they face a very tough competition. Bandt pointed out the number of seats as yet too close to call, a result that could dramatically increase or decrease the party’s current standing.
Elizabeth Watson-Brown takes centre stage as the Greens’ saviour of the night in Queensland. With her strong fundraising, she has the greatest hope of retaining one of the seats they flipped in last year’s elections. Last year, the Greens made sweeping gains in Queensland, winning three lower house seats. This milestone, even in the wake of today’s uncertainties, is a testament to their ability to succeed in the Corridor.
Max Chandler-Mather’s recent association with the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) has led to some negative perceptions among voters. Stakeholder focus groups showed that this image might have killed his goodwill, especially among the young people in his constituency. As the Greens inevitably consider these matters, they can’t lose sight of just how important public perception is to their growing electoral success.
Mixed Results and Future Prospects
For all the obstacles in their path, there are encouraging signs for the Greens. Though they face some promising losses, their newfound power to guarantee two more seats could more than make up for any worrisome defeats they face. The final result is still unknown, but Bandt’s victory speech communicated a feeling of confidence and determination among his supporters.
“What I can say is I would rather be in [Wills candidate] Samantha Ratnam’s shoes than anyone else’s right now,” he remarked, highlighting his confidence in Ratnam’s campaign amidst a competitive environment.
The political impact of the election remains in flux with results still coming in. Bandt celebrated Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s loss in his seat, signaling a shift that may benefit the Greens’ positioning in future elections.
